First strike

EU's Crimea sanctions only good as opening gambit

Even as a first step, the European Union's economic sanctions on Russia will look timid to some. Vladimir Putin won't care much about visa restrictions and asset freezes imposed by EU foreign ministers on 21 individuals deemed to have taken part in Russia's seizure of Crimea. Nor will the actions hurt Russia's economy. But Europe also knows that March 17 probably saw just the opening salvo of a long confrontation with Russia, in which its only weapons are economic ones. In such context, the name of the game is flexible response, not massive retaliation.

The idea that European governments can really pinpoint who in the Russian leadership is really party to the decisions made in the Kremlin is preposterous. No one - even it seems in the Russian government - knows how Putin rules these days. Hitting a few likely suspects at random - and among them, it seems, some of Moscow's puppets in Crimea, who mostly followed orders - will not push Russia into a meaningful rethink.

The need for unanimity among the 28 EU governments means that further steps will be harder to take. Foreign ministers left it up to EU leaders, who will meet later this week, to decide on more severe measures. The question is whether the EU is already planning the next steps, as it should, or whether it is waiting to see what Putin will do.

The Russian president will address the country's parliament on March 18. He is unlikely to dilute his Crimean response after Sunday's referendum. More worryingly, he may turn his attention to eastern Ukraine, planning overt or covert military action there. Is the EU ready to retaliate, not just symbolically on a few individuals like it did on Monday, but more seriously by sanctioning Russia's companies, banks, and money flows? Are European leaders preparing their respective opinions for the likelihood that sacrifices will have to be made in the defence of Ukraine? So far, that hasn't been the case.

It is up to EU leaders to show whether they are ready. Angela Merkel last week threatened Russia with "massive damage" if it didn't back down. At some point she and her colleagues will have to be more explicit about what that means.