Mirroring reality

It was only a matter of time before non-state actors started using drones to carry out assassinations, or terrorist attacks

In November 2017, University of Berkeley professor, Stuart Russell and the Future of Life Institute collaborated to present an eight-minute movie entitled Slaughterbots at the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons in Geneva. This presented a science fiction scenario in documentary format. 

The movie showed palm-sized drones carrying darts with lethal mini-explosive darts. The drones are driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and tasked with killing specific people, and attacking specific locations. The drones use a combination of technologies like face recognition, internet IP tracing, and GPS-mapping to locate and identify targets and kill them. There is little collateral damage, with minimal damage to property and no injury to bystanders. There is also a high level of deniability to carrying out such attacks.

Each of the technological capabilities displayed is well within the realms of the possible. Drones can be easily acquired off the shelf. Face recognition technology is ubiquitous even if it still has fairly high-error rates. If you know somebody’s mobile number, a number of hacks can help you learn that person’s location (these hacks are illegal). Anybody can synthesise small but effective plastic explosive packs in a home lab, using ingredients bought over the counter.

It may already be entirely possible to put together swarms of smart drones and programme them to seek out and hit specific targets. Once such an autonomous swarm is given a “contract”, it is hard to see how the attack could be averted. What’s more, it could be done without recourse to large budgets.

Drones have been used extensively for reconnaissance and aerial assaults by various defence forces. But weaponised drones have always been “manned” by operators who send remote commands when targets are identified. 

Autonomous drones, which carry out attacks on their own initiative are not yet the normal, although such killer bots are entirely plausible. Other autonomous weapon systems such as unmanned machine-guns, unmanned tanks, submarines and unmanned anti-missile systems are already in operation. All such systems depend on AI. 

The Future of Life Institute that commissioned Slaughterbots is among the many organisations lobbying to place restrictions on the further development of autonomous weapons. In the past few months, many researchers at Google, Amazon and Microsoft have expressed their distaste for weaponising AI research and enabling autonomous weaponry in open letters to respective managements. Those letters have, in fact, led to the Silicon Valley giants formulating and articulating corporate policies on the ethical use of AI and pulling out of lucrative image-processing contracts and face-recognition research funded by the US government agencies. 

But science fiction has often anticipated technological change and it was only a matter of time before some non-state actor started using drones to carry out assassinations, or terrorist attacks. In July, Houthi rebels from Yemen claimed to have attacked Abu Dhabi airport using drones. The rebels claimed that they launched drones from 1,500 kms away and penetrated the UAE capital’s defences. However, the UAE denies an attack ever happened. 

A couple of weeks ago, there was an assassination attempt using drones. This targeted Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, while he was giving a speech in the capital, Caracas, on August 4. While Maduro survived unharmed, some soldiers were injured. The perpetrators are unknown though the president blamed Colombia and the US and a terror group calling itself “Soldiers in T-Shirts” claimed responsibility. 

A pair of M600 drones from China’s DJI Corporation were deployed in the Venezuela attack. Each was carrying around 1 kg of C-4 plastic explosive and both exploded near their target. DJI is a global market leader, manufacturing a wide selection of drone models for different purposes. 

The M600 can be bought online for a cost of somewhere between $5,000-$6,000, depending on the specific accessories and features (and the local tax structure). The C-4 is a plastic explosive, which could be made by a bright 15-year-old, using raw materials bought over the counter. These were operator-driven drones and the operator might well have been within line of sight.

This will certainly not be the last drone attack. One problem for the defence is that drones fly low — well below the level at which radar operates — and many are small, non-metallic objects with tiny radar and infrared signatures. While drones are noisy, there is plenty of ongoing research on noise-reduction. It may be technically possible to protect a sensitive location or a VIP from an operator-controlled drone by blocking wireless signals. But that wouldn’t work against an autonomous drone. The movie Slaughterbots could be mirroring reality very soon.