Probal Basak: Is the Tiger really back?

What Somen Mitra's return to the Congress means for the party in West Bengal

Among those who left the Congress to form a new party, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has always been held in high esteem by President Pranab Mukherjee, arguably the most influential Congressman from West Bengal. And, rightfully so! Banerjee has tasted immense success -from dismantling the Left citadel in the state to threatening to eliminate the Congress from the state in the coming Lok Sabha elections.

Through the past two years, many grass-root-level Congress workers in the state have moved to the Trinamool Congress. However, the recent return of Somen Mitra from the Trinamool Congress to the Congress fold is something on which the Congress is betting big.

Mitra has resigned as a Trinamool Congress member of Parliament and will formally join the Congress by the end of this month. In the late 90s, Mitra and Mamata Banerjee were the most prominent faces of the state Congress. In fact, the Mitra-versus-Banerjee battle over the youth Congress leadership was perceived to be the reason why Banerjee launched the Trinamool Congress in 1998.

However, following differences with the Congress state leadership and the party's high command, Mitra quit the Congress in 2008 to form his own party, the Indira National Congress, which was later merged with the Trinamool Congress in 2009.

Mitra's return to the Congress is important because in Bengal, the Congress' electoral success traditionally rides on the popularity of local leaders -Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in Murshidabad, Deepa Dasmunshi in Uttar Dinajpur and the late ABA Ghani Khan Choudhury in Malda. All six Congress Lok Sabha representatives from the state have been elected from these three north Bengal districts.

Mitra is an addition to this handful of Congress leaders from Bengal with a following among the masses. A former state Congress president, Mitra was Congress member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from 1972 to 2006 from North Kolkata's Sealdah constituency, now represented by his wife. He doesn't only have influence in Kolkata, a weak link for the state Congress, but can also provide leadership to the entire state unit of the Congress, something the party is in dire need of.

Perhaps this is why an elated Congress leader and Minister of State for Railways Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, while reacting to Mitra's comeback, said, "Our tiger is back."

But Mitra and the Congress have a tough road ahead. After the Trinamool Congress snapped ties with the Congress in 2012, there was mass defection from the Congress to Trinamool. A couple of months ago, almost the entire Congress workforce switched loyalties in the Nadia district. All 22 councillors in the Shanipur municipality, under the Congress for two decades, joined the Trinamool Congress. Five-time Congress MLA from the locality, Ajay Dey, also switched sides. In the last six months, about a dozen civic bodies in districts such as Birbhum, Nadia and North 24 Paraganas, earlier under the Congress, have been taken over by Trinamool, primarily due to defection.

State Congress President Paradip Bhattacharya concedes party workers in the state are demoralised. "At the least, Somen Mitra's return will send out a positive message to them. They now believe the party has not lost relevance in the state," he said.

An analysis of last year's rural polls shows why the 2014 general elections will be a struggle for existence in the state for the Congress. The party bagged only 12 per cent vote share in rural polls, while the Trinamool Congress and the Left secured 42 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively.

The more worrying fact is the split between the Congress and Trinamool Congress, which seems to be hurting the Congress more. While Trinamool has been able to hold its fort, fielding its own candidates in traditional Congress strongholds, the Left has also been able to match the Congress in those pockets. In Malda and Murshidabad, where all Lok Sabha seats are currently held by the Congress, the gap between the Congress and the Left, in terms of vote share, was very thin in the rural polls. In Malda, the Congress secured a share of 33 per cent, against the Left's 32 per cent. In Adhir Chowdhury's Murshidabad, the Congress secured 38 per cent, only two per cent more than the Left. In another traditional Congress-dominated district, North Dinajpur, the Left had a share of 33 per cent, compared to the Congress's 29 per cent, primarily because Trinamool Congress snatched 10-15 per cent of the vote share.

It is, therefore, hardly surprising that in all these three districts, the Congress will find it difficult to even retain its seats. The rural polls indicate with Trinamool securing a share of 10-15 per cent votes in these districts, the Left may have an advantage in traditional Congress strongholds.

"Congress is set to be eliminated from the state in the coming Lok Sabha polls. Somen Mitra can hardly make any difference," says Trinamool Congress leader Mukul Roy. Mitra and the Congress face an uphill struggle in proving Roy wrong.