Reviving Doha

A trade deal can provide a new stimulus

The fresh initiative by Commerce Minister Anand Sharma to meet ambassadors of the key members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Geneva, in a bid to revive the deadlocked Doha round of trade negotiations, is well-timed though a positive outcome may be doubtful. Coming ahead of the G20 meeting in Seoul in November, the move can help create a positive environment for the major trading countries to at least finalise the modalities for the Doha parleys which have been going on since 2001 without much success. Besides, it may also throw up some leads for New Delhi to pursue during the visit of US President Barack Obama next month. The role of the US, which has been shunning the negotiations table for long and has stood firm on its controversial stand on sectoral tariff reduction by developing countries, is going to be crucial for the talks to make any substantive progress.

Strategically, India’s latest move is, indeed, part of its ongoing efforts to wipe off the tag of being an obstructionist that had got stuck due to New Delhi’s unwavering stand on protecting its farm sector, which had resulted in the abrupt ending of some key WTO-sponsored meetings in the past. The image-mending course had actually begun in September last year when India convened a mini-ministerial confabulation which signalLed the resumption of the Doha talks after a prolonged hiatus. No doubt, further progress has still been elusive, but the negotiators have since remained engaged in discussing the issues concerning agricultural and manufactured products. However, considering the mutually conflicting trading interests of the developed and developing countries, as also of the importers and exporters, and the livelihood concerns associated with agriculture in the developing countries, reaching an agreement cannot be expected to be easy. Equally vexed are some other major issues, such as tariff-rate quotas, cotton subsidies, a special safeguard mechanism for the poor countries and nation-specific sensitive goods.

Indeed, the broader issue at stake, which WTO Director General Pascal Lamy has repeatedly been reminding the global community of, is the relevance of multilateralism in international trade and the future of the WTO and the institutions created by it to ensure fair and transparent inter-country commerce. The growing practice among countries to get into bilateral and regional trade agreements is posing another formidable threat to multilateralism. While earlier only the US and the EU were entering into such deals, now others have also begun emulating them. Asean has already emerged as one of the biggest regional trading blocs. The way it is expanding by roping in rapidly developing countries like India and China, this may soon become the world’s largest free trading zone. However, it can also be argued that such bilateral and regional commercial pacts can coexist with a WTO-negotiated global trade deal. It is believed that the successful conclusion of the Doha round can provide a $500-billion stimulus to the world economy. It may, therefore, be worthwhile to make one more attempt to carry the Doha round to its logical end.