Terror firma

Past sanctions did not cramp the freedom of terror groups

The United Nations’ (UN) sanctions under the Security Council Resolution 1267, designating Masood Azhar and his three colleagues global terrorists, are undoubtedly a cause for celebration, as much for the action itself as the diplomatic signalling following China’s acquiescence after almost a decade of stalling. Azhar and his organisation, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), have been responsible for an escalating level of terrorist attacks on Indian territory — from the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 to the ambush at Pulwama in February 2019. Given Pakistan’s status as an acknowledged Chinese client, the Security Council resolution is no small gain for India, and the Narendra Modi-led government deserves some credit for pursuing the issue energetically. That said, it is an open question whether Mr Modi and his party’s high-pitched triumphalism on the campaign trail is warranted.

The prime minister’s claim that the Congress did nothing to curb cross-border terrorism, for example, is manifestly incorrect. UN sanctions against Hafeez Saeed followed less than a month after India provided incontrovertible evidence that he and his organisation, Lashkar-e-Taiba, were behind the multiple attacks in Mumbai in November 2008 (the UN recently turned down an appeal from Saeed to be taken off this list). Besides, it is no secret that sanctions do not appear to cramp the style and freedom of these terror groups and their leaders. Indeed, after India’s airstrikes at Balakot across the Line of Control, for instance, the Pakistani authorities openly demonstrated to the international community the flourishing camp run by the JeM, though the group was officially designated a terror outfit some years ago. 

There are several reasons for the Indian political and security establishment to remain on high alert in spite of this latest UN move. Sanctions formally entail an asset freeze, a travel ban, and arms embargo. Azhar would be well aware of this sanctions playbook so he is unlikely to hold assets or bank accounts in his own name. There are plenty of benami routes, including those facilitated by the Pakistani military-intelligence complex, which have nurtured these terror organisations for use in Kashmir. In any case, past experience shows by the time the sanctions take effect, all the money in the bank accounts of these organisations would be transferred to a new one. Travel bans anyway don’t mean much as these people don’t undertake much international travel.

Second, these groups are fluid in nature so they easily find ways around embargoes by changing their names as the JeM has frequently done in the past. Third, Saeed and the LeT’s own post-sanctions activities suggest no diminution of fortunes. Saeed suffered, at best, periodic bouts of house arrest, and the LeT’s functions have been co-opted by supposed charitable front organisations, one of whom even launched a radical political party.

The real gain would be when this listing is taken to the next stage where the Financial Action Task Force is persuaded to push Pakistan from the current grey list to the black list. Also, this could be used to influence the International Monetary Fund to deny Pakistan the bailout loan it is seeking. There have been some signs that the Pakistan government is making moves towards burnishing its anti-terror credentials. But with the snows melting fast and the start of a new fighting season around the corner, the efficacy of the latest UN sanctions will face its first reality test.