Priyanka's elevation in Cong may force Akhilesh, Mayawati to restrategise

Priyanka's striking resemblance with her grandmother and former PM Indira Gandhi had long endeared her to the old guards and grassroots cadre

Midway into the maiden Lucknow roadshow by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the newly appointed Congress general secretary in charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh, on February 11, the party president and her brother, Rahul Gandhi, drew an analogy with cricket that the grand-old outfit would now play on the ‘front foot’ and not rest till it formed the next government at the Centre and in the state.

The near euphoric response of the party cadre and supporters to the massive roadshow that meandered through the busy thoroughfares of the state capital from the airport to the party’s state headquarters indicated that although too early to forecast, Rahul’s prognostication was not entirely out of place, either.

Truth is, goal posts have shifted over the past month after regional heavyweights, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), had on January 12 announced their pre-poll alliance for UP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. Political pundits had labelled the tie-up ‘formidable’ against the rollicking election machinery of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Narendra Modi government; one which again relegated the Congress to the margins of the state polity.

However, the surprise announcement of Priyanka’s elevation in the Congress’s hierarchy, coupled with recent developments, has realigned the matrices in UP, which elects the maximum number (80) of members of Parliament (MPs) and is key to the formation of the government at the Centre.

The SP-BSP alliance — which had divided 76 seats equally among themselves, while leaving two constituencies (Rae Bareli and Amethi) for the Congress and two others for alliance partners, notably Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) — is perceptibly not looking as strong and indispensable as on the afternoon of January 12.

The UP contest, which was reckoned bipolar between the SP-BSP and the BJP, has metamorphosed into a triangular fight with the Congress now appearing to be a strong contender for the pole position. The biggest factor jolting the SP-BSP applecart is Priyanka, although she is still untested in high stake battles beyond the Congress pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, which are represented by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha.

Priyanka’s striking resemblance with her grandmother and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had long endeared her to the old guards and grassroots cadre, with voices one too many demanding more active engagement of this newest member of the Nehru-Gandhi clan.

Her charm offensive is enthusing a comatose Congress, which has been out of power in UP for almost three decades now but causing a ripple effect in opposition camps as well. The Congress is confident of not only retaining its existing vote bank but also attracting a chunk of Muslim votes from the SP-BSP combination, apart from upper castes, mainly the Brahmins, from the BJP.

UP Congress Spokesperson Zishan Haider said Priyanka’s entry had made the party stronger at the grassroots and youth were getting attracted to the party in large numbers. “The UP contest is not between two parties or formations any more, but shaping up as a triangular contest with the Congress gaining traction thick and fast.”

Meanwhile, political commentator Hemant Tiwari pointed towards some anger among the forward castes at the BJP after the Modi government got the Bill overturning the Supreme Court order regarding the SC/ST Act passed in Parliament.

“Besides, there is also an undercurrent of disenchantment among a section of Brahmins, especially in the Purvanchal region, as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath belongs to the Kshatriya community. A section of Brahmins are likely to gravitate towards the Congress with the party getting aggressive in the wake of the polls,” he observed.

The Muslims, who have over the past elections largely stood by the SP, are wary of the SP-BSP alliance since the BSP has in the past cosied up to the BJP multiple times. With Congress getting stronger, the minorities have now a viable option for keeping the BJP away from power.

At the same time, apprehensions were expressed from Day One about the SP-BSP alliance playing out at the ground level, since their respective core constituencies of backward castes, especially the Yadavs, and the Dalits share uneasy social equations in their immediate surroundings and at the village level. 
 

10% quota for EWS

Meanwhile, realising the seething anger over the SC/ST Act issue among the upper castes, the ruling BJP has taken a few remedial measures to calm the nerves and limit the possible damage at the hustings.

The Centre has already introduced 10 per cent quota in government jobs and educational institutions for the economically weak among the upper castes while keeping the existing quota for other sections untouched. Interestingly, the quota Bill was passed in the Lok Sabha with a voice vote with no major political party opposing it, considering the political ramification of overtly defying the move.

This has blunted the anger among the upper castes at the BJP with the elections merely a few weeks away.

Income tax rebate

The tax rebate for people having an annual income up to Rs 5 lakh, as provided in the interim Budget, has given the much-needed relief to the burgeoning middle- and salaried-class of voters, especially in the urban areas, wherein the BJP has traditionally enjoyed an edge vis-a-vis other parties. This would also help the BJP counter the opposition onslaught over socio-economic issues, such as rising fuel prices, inflation and lack of jobs.

Besides, the massive agricultural outlay of Rs 1.41 trillion and the provision of Rs 6,000 income guarantee for small farmers would help the BJP counter the Opposition onslaught over farm distress. 

There are already rumours of the SP-BSP alliance rejigging the terms of their engagement to account for recent developments, which has mutated the political landscape of UP.