Indian experts demand fair carbon space to tackle climate

Amidst efforts to revise the global warming target to within 1.5 degree Celsius from pre- industrial times, Indian experts today demanded that the world must agree to a fair allocation of carbon space and enhance financial and technological support to developing countries.
Noting that developed countries will have to significantly increase the level of their own efforts and reach net zero emissions in the next 5-10 years, they said that if they fail to do so, the 1.5 degree target will "remain a hollow shell - devoid of any real significance".
The experts are T Jayaraman who is a professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Anand Patwardhan, professor at the University of Maryland and IIT-Bombay and Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General, Centre for Science and Environment.

"While we welcome this increase in ambition, we would like to draw the attention of the climate negotiators to the need to allocate the remaining carbon budget in a fair manner to all countries so that there is a chance for meeting this temperature target.
"We would also like to emphasis the fact that meeting this temperature goal would require massive enhancement of financial and technological support from the developed countries to the developing countries so that they are able to move quickly onto low-carbon development pathways," said three Indian experts in a joint statement.
Developed countries have openly given their support to this goal while India and China have also shown their willingness to consider this temperature goal.

Commenting about the practicality of 1.5 degree Celsius temperature goal, they said that as per the Fifth Assessment report of IPCC (AR5), for a 50 per cent probability of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degree, the total carbon dioxide emissions allowed from 2011 till 2100 amount to 550 giga-tonnes (Gt) of CO2.

For a 33 per cent probability of keeping temperature increase below 1.5 degree, the corresponding figure for cumulative emissions is 850 Gt CO2.
But if the world wants to raise the certainty of meeting this temperature goal to 66 per cent, then the budget shrinks to a mere 400 Gt CO2, they said.

"Comparing the existing INDC's to the available budget
indicates that for a better than even chance of meeting the 1.5 degree target, the remaining carbon budget is exhausted well before 2030," they said.
The experts said that currently there are no limits on how much countries can emit and stressed on the need for limits so that countries individually and the world collectively remain within the available carbon space.
"But the carbon space for a 1.5 degree target is so limited that developed countries will have to reach net zero emissions in next 5-10 years.
"Developing countries will have some more time, but their development space will be so constrained that they will need massive support in terms of finance, technologies and capacity so that they are able to meet their basic development and poverty alleviation needs while remaining within the available carbon budget," they said.

The experts maintained that even for 2 degree target, the developed countries INDC's fall well short of their fair shares and very significant additional finance and technology support for developing countries is needed.
"We would like to first see an agreement on all elements that credibly deliver on 2 degree in a fair and equitable manner. After that, negotiators need to chalk out a plan about what more needs to be done to raise the ambition to 1.5 degree. In the absence of real commitments, even 2 degree target has no real significance," they said.
Elaborating about who will take how much carbon space, the three experts said the US and the EU would consume 128 Gt CO2 between 2011 and 2030.

"If we take available carbon space to be 550 Gt CO2 (for a 50 per cent probability of staying below 1.5 C) then the EU and the US alone will consume 23 per cent of the budget.
"Annex-I countries as a whole would emit 187 Gt CO2 between 2011-2030 - 34 per cent of the total budget," they said.
They said that India is likely to emit only 58 Gt CO2 until 2030 - 10.5 per cent of the available budget of 550 Gt CO2.
Even at higher growth rates of GDP (using the figure quoted by the Indian government in its INDC), this may go up to 87 Gt CO2 -- 16 per cent of the budget of 550 Gt CO2.

"India's emissions would, therefore, be less than half of the Annex 1 countries, though India has approximately the same population as all Annex 1 countries combined together.
"The developed countries under the current dispensation would continue to misappropriate the remaining carbon space even in the future," they said.