New models to predict when employees will call in sick

In some good news for employers, British scientists are developing innovative models that can predict when workers will phone in sick.
A collaborative research project launched by Lancaster University aims to develop new models that employers can use to better predict and manage absenteeism in the workplace.
By using cutting-edge statistical methods, academics from the University will look to develop a method of accurately analysing characteristics and patterns in data, both within large population groups and at an individual level.
"We know that by looking at population groups there are key events that can cause greater absenteeism - such as during large sporting events, during a flu outbreak or when there is particularly severe bad weather. The modelling of data will allow us to quantify this affect," said Dr Peter Neal from Lancaster University.

"At an individual level, we will be able to identify workers with unusual absence patterns which can inform managers of where to invest attention," Neal said.
The models that will be developed on the back of the research should enable managers to work out contingencies for staffing levels during predicted episodes of increased absenteeism.

It will also help them to intervene at an earlier level to work with staff who could potentially end up taking long periods of sick leave.
The two-year project, which is being launched this month, has garnered a funding of more than 136,000 pounds.
Business Safety Systems, a Stafford-based company, have part-funded the research and will be providing the data, which needs to be collected legally, to create absenteeism modelling software.