Stakes high for AIADMK, DMK in Tamil Nadu

The electoral battle in Tamil Nadu is crucial for the ruling AIADMK and the principal opposition DMK for reasons that go beyond a wish to wield influence with the next government at the Centre.

Polling for 39 Lok Sabha seats and by-elections for 18 Assembly seats will be held simultaneously in the state on April 18.

Looking to improve their strength in the state Assembly, neither the AIADMK nor the DMK have ceded any of the seats where bypolls will be held to their allies, which include the BJP and the Congress respectively.

TTV Dhinakaran-led fledgling Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) is also in the fray and may split the anti-DMK and AIADMK votes.

In the 234-member strong Assembly, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has 114 members (including the Speaker), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 88, its allies Congress and Indian Union Muslim League 8 and 1 respectively and Dhinakaran is an Independent member.

Twenty-two seats are vacant and bypolls will be held for 18 of these.

For the AIADMK, bagging maximum seats in the two elections is important to ensure a smooth sail till the end of its tenure in 2021, halt a resurgent DMK led by its new chief M K Stalin and exert influence at the Centre.

Besides, the bypolls will give the AIADMK an opportunity to take on Dhinakaran, who handed a surprise defeat to the ruling party in the December 2017 R K Nagar by-election.

"The by-election results will determine if the AIADMK can hang on to power," political commentator 'Tharasu' Shyam told PTI.

"The AIADMK has to win at least 10 out of 18 seats for a thin majority, leave alone effective governance," he said.

Shyma pointed out that factors like three AIADMK MLAs -- A Prabhu (Kallakurichi), V T Kalaiselvan (Vridhachalam), and E Rathinasabapathy (Aranthangi) -- supporting Dhinakaran, MLA M Thamimun Ansari extending support to the DMK combine and the anti-government stand of another legislator -- S Karunas could spell trouble for the ruling party.

"It is a big question mark if the AIADMK under Chief Minister K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam could get late J Jayalalithaa's (supporters') votes," he said.

Political analyst Sumanth Raman said to establish that they are "the real AIADMK, the ruling party has to do far better than Dhinakaran."
Raman said, "An electoral win is extremely important for the DMK since they have a new leader in Stalin and there is pressure on him to deliver victories for the party."