Devaluation of yuan not a cause of worry at current levels: Raghuram Rajan

But warns of the dangers of 'tit-for-tat' actions by other countries

Raghuram Rajan | Photo: Kamlesh Pednekar
Reuters Mumbai
Last Updated : Aug 20 2015 | 12:35 PM IST

The Indian economy is showing signs of improvement, Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan said on Thursday, adding that a pick up in rural demand would further improve economic growth.

"You may see rural demand coming back more strongly, and that would be a very tremedous bonus to the economy compared to we are," Rajan said at an industry event.

Rajan said separately that the devaluation of the Chinese yuan was not something to be "concerned" about at current levels, but warned of the dangers of "tit-for-tat" actions by other countries if the move was part of a long-term competitive devaluation.

The comments come after China's central bank this month devalued the yuan, sparking concerns that policy makers were aiming to help struggling exporters - a scenario they feared would ignite a "currency war."

The rupee has fallen more than 2% against the dollar since the yuan devaluation, slumping at one point to its weakest since September 2013, when India was in the midst of its worst currency turmoil in more than two decades.

The outlook on emerging Asian currencies in the past two weeks also deteriorated to its worst in years, as bearish bets on the Chinese yuan hit their largest in more than five years after the surprise devaluation, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Although Rajan added he did not believe the actions from the People's Bank of China were an indication of a long-term devaluation, he warned of the dangers.

"I think if the Chinese depreciation holds to about this level, it's not something that one should be overly concerned about," Rajan said at a banking event in Mumbai.

"If it's part of a process of getting competitive advantage through ... longer term depreciation it has to be worrisome across the world, partly because you could have tit-for-tat actions," he added.

Rajan, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, has repeatedly warned about the dangers of competitive devaluations for emerging markets such as India.

Without naming examples, he expressed concerns that there were already such devaluations taking place over the past few years.

"Across the globe because of weak demand we have seen significant efforts to depreciate one's currency," he said on Thursday.

"That's a worrisome trend across the globe because there is only so much global demand and if we all are trying to capture it by depreciating our currency then it becomes a free for all."

Rajan added that the central bank will continue to watch the progress of monsoon to assess the overall impact on inflation.

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First Published: Aug 20 2015 | 12:20 PM IST

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