Josh Felman

Using GST data could help correct inflated real growth figures

The country should convert the Trump threat to an India opportunity, re-embracing a more liberal trade regime as a way of reviving manufacturing output and exports

India's exporters are already under dire threat from the US. That only makes it more important that they should not be attacked from the domestic side. QCOs must be eliminated immediately

The RBI must come out with an official explanation, but until it does, we can only guess. But there are a few reasonable hypotheses

India now holds about $650 billion in reserves, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. The problem is that global financial markets have even more firepower

In our earlier piece in these pages, we highlighted the unwelcome consequences of the exchange rate policy adopted under the outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regime

Ever since the liberalisation in 1991, the RBI has pursued a flexible exchange rate policy

Why is consumption soft, employment growth weak, and core inflation low, when the economy is apparently growing strongly?

There's no reason for the cess to be retained in its current form. That's because the cess rates themselves are monstrously complicated, varying not only in magnitude but also according to end-use

Over the past few years, most commentators have rightly emphasised the tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations, pointing especially to the Centre's repeated recourse to non-sharable cesses

What can we learn from the latest survey? Before we answer this question, we need to recognise the limitations of comparing NSS figures with the ones from the NIA

Contrary to belief, GST underperformed the old tax regime in its initial years but has now begun to exceed expectations, six years after implementation

The nominal figures track the real numbers until the first half of FY23, but then decline by a whopping 14 percentage points over the past three quarters

Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Josh Felman is a principal at JH Consulting

While many analysts have estimated India's potential annual GDP growth at 7-8 per cent, the most recent figures indicate a subdued rate of 4.4 per cent

All the heady optimism has overlooked the vulnerable state of the macro-economy. Caution, not complacency, is the more appropriate sentiment for now

The long-term consequences of the shocks could be very serious for China

To be sure, the cooperative spirit has gone missing since about 2018, reflecting the heavy-handedness of the Centre, not just on the GST but across a range of issues

The ramifications of this decision may not be visible today, but the damage will become apparent over time

India has struggled to generate adequate military resources