Why do your vegetables cost more? Economic Survey blames climate change

Extreme weather events are disrupting vegetable production, driving inflation as heatwaves, unseasonal rains, and supply chain issues continue to push prices higher

The rising cost of vegetables has become a major economic concern for Indian households, with food inflation remaining stubbornly high over the past year. According to the Economic Survey 2024-25, climate change-induced weather extremities— ranging from prolonged heatwaves to erratic rainfall— have significantly disrupted agricultural production, leading to sharp spikes in vegetable prices.

 

Heatwaves, unseasonal rains, and floods: A recipe for inflation

 

The Economic Survey highlights how extreme weather conditions have disproportionately affected perishable food items, especially vegetables. Unlike staple cereals, vegetables have shorter production cycles and are more vulnerable to sudden weather fluctuations.

 

The report reveals that:

 

- Heatwaves increased significantly in 2024, impacting key vegetable-producing states. High temperatures led to water stress in crops, reducing yields. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that heatwaves were recorded on 18 per cent of the days between 2022 and 2024, a stark increase from just 5 per cent in 2020-21.

 

- Unseasonal rainfall and floods damaged standing crops and disrupted supply chains, leading to severe post-harvest losses. Data from the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down to Earth (DTE) indicate that the total crop area damaged in 2024 was higher than in the previous two years.

 

- Cyclones and erratic monsoons further aggravated supply shortages, making vegetables more expensive across the country.

 

Tomatoes, onions, and pulses: The main culprits

 

The survey points out that specific food items bore the brunt of climate disruptions, leading to an imbalance in food inflation metrics:

 

- Tomatoes and onions saw record-high prices due to unseasonal weather patterns, affecting key producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. Data from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs shows that retail prices of tomatoes increased sharply in mid-2024, signaling high volatility.

 

- Pulse crops, particularly tur dal (pigeon pea), witnessed high inflation, driven by reduced yields linked to erratic rainfall and rising temperatures. The report notes that tur production declined by 13.6 per cent in 2022-23 and 10.8 per cent in 2023-24 compared to the last five-year average.

 

- The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) remained elevated, primarily due to rising vegetable costs, even as core inflation (excluding food and fuel) showed signs of easing.

 

The survey also found that excluding tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) from the CPI basket significantly lowered overall food inflation, proving their disproportionate influence on household expenses.

 

Supply disruptions, storage issues, and higher retail prices

 

One of the biggest factors driving price volatility is supply chain inefficiencies exacerbated by climate change. The Economic Survey notes that:

 

- Erratic weather events lead to sudden supply crunches, making it difficult for traders to maintain stable pricing.

 

- Storage infrastructure remains inadequate, especially for perishable items like vegetables, worsening the impact of weather-driven production losses. Despite government efforts, a significant portion of vegetables is lost post-harvest due to poor storage facilities.

 

- Transportation bottlenecks, such as damaged roads during floods, further disrupt market supply, adding to costs.

 

The Economic Survey further suggests that vegetable prices may remain volatile in the short term due to lingering weather uncertainties. However, commodity prices are projected to soften over the next two years, provided there is a normal monsoon and improved market intervention by the government.