Rupee flat, forward premiums dip as focus shifts to US inflation data

The Indian rupee was flat on Monday following a tumultuous week for global markets with attention shifting to US inflation print, which will influence expectations on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
 

The rupee was at 83.9550 against the US dollar as of 10:25 a.m. IST, unchanged from its previous close.
 

The dollar index was steady at 103.2 while most Asian currencies slipped with the Malaysian ringgit down nearly 0.6 per cent and leading losses.
 

The rupee has struggled over the last two weeks amid outflows from local stocks, an unwinding of carry trades and dampened risk sentiment, but interventions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have ensured it holds above the 84-handle, traders said.
 

The central bank's presence near 83.96-83.97 levels should support the rupee despite the broader bias tilted towards steady deprecation, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
 

Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums slipped, with the 1-year implied yield down 2 basis points (bps) at 2.02 per cent on likely profit booking in paid positions.
 

US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday will be the key focus this week as investors gauge concerns of a slowdown in the world's largest economy.
 

"The limited Fed commentary is consistent with the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, though with a 50-basis point cut also being considered," Societe Generale said in a note.
 

India will release consumer inflation data later on Monday.
 

Inflation is expected to have eased to 3.65 per cent in July, according to a Reuters poll of economists, from 5.08 per cent in the previous month.

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