US Inflation

Upcoming US inflation figures, crude oil price movements, and geopolitical tensions in West Asia will be primary triggers for gold and silver prices, amid heightened speculation surrounding the global interest rate outlook, analysts said. Investors will also keep an eye on consumer price data from Germany and China, GDP figures from the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, as well as China's trade data this week, they added. "US inflation numbers would be the key trigger for bullion markets amid considerable speculation over the interest rate outlook," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 11. "In gold, the prices look for resistance at Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams, while in case of silver we still maintain a positive bias till prices are above supports at Rs 2.31 lakh per kg," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity

Kevin Warsh faces a tough choice on September rates as persistent inflation pressures clash with market expectations and Donald Trump's push for lower borrowing costs

Warsh used a keynote speech to hammer home a message that curbing inflation is the central bank's top priority

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.21% to 99.12 and was on pace for its biggest daily gain since August 6, with the euro down 0.16% at $1.1655.

The closely watched consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in the prior month

Fed policy preview: The bigger risk for the market lies not in the rate decision itself but in the possibility of a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate.

US consumer inflation eased more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, though markets still see a possibility of a Federal Reserve rate increase this year

US consumer spending rose in May despite the highest inflation in over three years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates

Forecasters expect the personal consumption expenditures price index, due Thursday, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May

President Donald Trump on Wednesday showed how he had learned to stop worrying about inflation and simply, in his own words, "love" it. Asked about the new report that the consumer price index in May had jumped 4.2 per cent over the last year, the president took a surprisingly optimistic tack with the challenging news. Trump didn't dismiss the affordability issue as a "hoax" that was started by Democrats, as he has done previously. Nor did he claim that he was bringing down the cost of living. Instead, after the government said that inflation spiked to the highest level since April 2023, Trump praised the numbers. "You know what I really love?" Trump said. "I love the inflation." It was an unexpected take given that voters ahead of the November midterm elections have ranked the economy as a top concern -- and have given Trump low marks on that issue. Within minutes of his on-camera comment, Democrats quickly rushed to promote it on social media. Trump had pledged in his 2024 campa

Beyond the initial energy shock, disruptions to fertilizer markets may eventually lead to higher grocery bills, while rising transportation costs could boost prices for all kinds of consumer goods

A key inflation gauge accelerated in April to the highest level in three years, the latest sign that spiking gas prices and higher food costs are squeezing Americans' finances. Inflation jumped to 3.8% in April compared with a year ago, the Commerce Department said Thursday, up from 3.5% in March and the highest since May 2023. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%, down from the 0.7% jump in March. The report showed that prices have risen for many items in addition to gas, indicating that inflation could persist and pose problems for congressional Republicans in this year's midterm elections. Inflation is also notably above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which means Fed policymakers may decide to forego any cuts to their key short-term interest rate this year. Some officials have signalled that their next move could be a hike rather than a cut. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation rose to 3.3% in April from 3.2% the previous month. It is the highes

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.6 per cent, down for a second day ​as Korean shares fell as much as 3.2 per cent before rebounding

A leadership shift at the US Fed amid political pressure and policy debates could test central bank independence and shape global financial stability

The war against Iran has started to impact Americans, with Amazon announcing a fuel surcharge for its e-commerce deliveries and some airlines hiking fees for checked-in baggage to offset higher fuel costs. The average price of petrol in the US has increased to USD 4.09 a gallon on Friday, up more than one dollar from just before the war and the highest level since August 2022. The cost of diesel has risen sharply from USD 3.64 per gallon a year ago to USD 5.53 per gallon on Friday, according to data maintained by the American Automobile Association (AAA). Diesel is widely used in farming, construction and transportation, besides other industries. E-commerce giant Amazon also said that, beginning April 17, it plans to add a 3.5 per cent fuel surcharge on third-party sellers. The US Postal Service on Wednesday said it is seeking to impose a temporary 8 per cent fuel surcharge for package and express mail deliveries to deal with rising transportation costs. If approved by the Postal

Economists are penciling in a 1 per cent increase in the consumer price index for March - the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 - after the Iran war pushed gas prices up by about $1/gallon

Fed's next move may ultimately be a hike, a possibility Powell acknowledged came up again in discussions this week - though that's not the base case for the majority of policymakers

Precious metal prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the next week, with volatility likely to persist as investors track key US economic data, including inflation numbers, GDP readings and policy signals from Federal Reserve, analysts said. Traders will also closely watch the US labour data, along with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and speeches from Fed officials, for cues on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts, they added. Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said gold and silver prices may continue to see more consolidative moves but volatility will prevail with focus on incoming US data on GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers and Federal Reserve official's commentary. On the domestic front, silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined Rs 5,532, or 2.2 per cent, while gold rose Rs 444, or 0.3 per cent, over the past week. "Gold ..

Gold prices are likely to trade firm next week as traders await key economic data, including US inflation numbers, for fresh cues on interest rate outlook, while silver may remain volatile amid shifting risk sentiment and speculative activity, analysts said. Traders will look for cues from US GDP, PMI, non-farm payroll and inflation data. Also, inflation readings from China, Germany, and India will also be keenly watched. Speeches from US Federal Reserve officials will be closely tracked as well for indications on the timing of potential rate cuts and their impact on bullion prices, they added. "Gold consolidation and recovery suggest that bias still remains positive. However, in case of silver, we remain cautious of volatility and further corrections," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, said. During the past week, gold futures climbed Rs 7,698, or 5.2 per cent, while silver slumped Rs 15,760 or nearly 6 per cent on the Multi ...

The employment report will be even more substantive than usual. In addition to the monthly payrolls and unemployment numbers, each January release includes an annual revision to the jobs count