Slow climb up: The time it takes the poor to become middle class in India

Religion, region, caste and education determine social mobility in the country

Henry Ford grew up on a farm, studied in a one-room school and went on to become one of America’s best-known industrialists.

While there have been concerns over whether the US still offers such opportunities for upward mobility, data shows the move from poverty to relative abundance is far harder in India. The average Indian in a low-income household would take seven generations to reach median income levels, according to data from the Paris-based Organisation for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It is five generations for the US, and around three for countries like Norway and Finland as seen in chart 1.



 

Mobility has improved in recent years, according to the 'State of Working India (2023)' report by Azim Premji University released earlier in September. But the report also noted that the majority of people engaged in casual labour saw their children enter the same work. Marginalised groups were worse affected.

Earlier studies on how families did from one generation to the next have also shown gaps based on social groups. One study looked at educational attainment as a measure of mobility. It suggested that Muslims had the largest gap on upward mobility relative to forward castes and others (chart 2).

“…even if there is growth on average, the extent of intergenerational mobility across groups determines whether Muslims, scheduled castes, and scheduled tribes will occupy a position of permanent disadvantage in the long run,” said the September 2022 study called ‘Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates Across Time and Social Groups,’ from authors Sam Asher, Paul Novosad and Charlie Rafkin.

Where one is born in India can also affect the ability to move up in life, according to another study which also looked at educational attainment to measure mobility. (Key states have been highlighted below in chart 3, click on image and hover for
others.) 

“In a state where education inequality is high during father's time, a son's educational attainment and in turn his life chances are dictated by his father's educational status,” said the January 2018 study entitled, ‘Is the Past Still Holding Us Back? A Study on Intergenerational Education Mobility in India’ from Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad) author P K V Kishan. Trends for women were unavailable due to paucity of data.

Credible income data across gender and other categories can help track mobility over the long term. And see if India is moving closer to encouraging its own Henrietta Fords.