Data shows Nov, Dec strongest months for Nifty; will history repeat?

An analysis of the past 25 years of data by SAMCO Securities shows reveals that the average Nifty gain in November and December months stands at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.

The calendar year 2026 has been a tumultuous year for equity markets thus far. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark Nifty 50 index has plunged over 15 per cent or 3,950 points amid of high crude oil prices, persistent foreign institutional investors (FIIs) selling and valuation worries among others. At current levels around 23,100, the Nifty has recouped around 4 per cent of the losses, but still trades with a yearly loss of over 11 per cent. In the process, the Nifty seems to be threatening to end its 10-year winning streak. Historical data shows, that the Nifty ended with gains in each of the last 10 calendar years starting 2016 onwards. Meanwhile, the month historical data suggests some hope for recovery in the Nifty in the remaining two months of the calendar year. An analysis of the past 25-year data by SAMCO Securities reveals that November and December have been the strongest months for Nifty in calendar years. As per the analysis, the Nifty has delivered an average gain of 2.5 per cent and 2.6 per cent in November and December, respectively, over the last 25 years. Jahol Prajapati, Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities in a note said that after months of persistent weakness, November and December could offer a potential seasonal tailwind for Indian equities. 

 

 Historical data suggests that these are Nifty's strongest months, delivering average returns of 2.5 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively, with positive returns in 60 per cent and 68 per cent of instances since 2001, the note stated. Check - TOP GAINERS NSE | TOP LOSERS NSE  "This year, Diwali falls on November 8, extending the festive activity into November and potentially supporting consumption sentiment, retail participation and market liquidity. Additionally, year-end portfolio rebalancing, institutional positioning and expectations of improved earnings visibility could provide support as investors reassess valuations after the recent correction," believes the analyst. Prajapati, however, cautions that the market enters this period against a challenging backdrop of persistent Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) outflows, elevated crude prices, rupee depreciation and global uncertainty. While seasonal trends offer a historical basis for optimism, the analyst reckons that a sustainable recovery will ultimately depend on improving earnings, stabilising global cues and a revival in foreign investors' participation. Seasonality may favour a rebound, but confirmation must come from fundamentals and flows, said the note. Another factor worth monitoring is the resilience of domestic institutional investors (DIIs), whose continued participation could help absorb some of the selling pressure from foreign investors. Improving festive-season demand, particularly across automobiles, consumer durables, retail and hospitality, may also offer clues about the strength of the domestic consumption cycle. Meanwhile, the recent market correction has moderated valuations across several pockets, potentially creating selective opportunities for long-term investors. However, a meaningful turnaround would require broader market participation rather than gains concentrated in a handful of heavyweight stocks, said Prajapati.  V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Investments believes that the market construct appears unfavourable for a rally as the crude oil headwind is getting stronger with Brent rising above $117. Reports of the US likely resuming strikes against Iran after the mid-term elections is another near-term worry. Disclaimer: Views and outlook in this report belong to the brokerages and analysts cited. They do not reflect the views of Business Standard. Readers are advised to exercise discretion.