JSW Steel Q3 Preview: Profit may plunge up to 80%, Ebitda to drop 30% YoY

JSW Steel Q3 Preview: Steel giant JSW Steel will announce its December quarter of financial year 2025 (Q3FY25) results on Friday, January 24, 2025.

 

JSW Steel is expected to face a challenging Q3FY25, with analysts forecasting weaker earnings due to softer steel prices and subdued demand. 

 

Nomura has cut its consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates by 21 per cent, citing lower volumes and declining HRC prices, with an expected Ebitda/t decline of Rs 560 Q-o-Q for the India business. 

 

Nuvama anticipates a 26 per cent Y-o-Y Ebitda drop to Rs 5,308.3 crore, despite a 6 per cent Q-o-Q rise in volumes. 

 

Meanwhile, Elara Capital projects a 2.9 per cent Y-o-Y revenue decline to Rs 40,724 crore, with Ebitda falling 30.1 per cent Y-o-Y. While lower coking coal prices offer some relief, weak post-festive demand and limited export opportunities remain key headwinds for JSW Steel. 

On the bourses, at 2:07 PM, JSW Steel shares were trading 1.69 per cent lower at Rs 910.75. In comparison, BSE Senex was trading flat with a positive bias at 75,883.70 levels.

 

Given this, here’s what brokerage expect from JSW Steel in Q3 results: 

 

Elara Capital 

While domestic steel companies are set to benefit from lower coking coal costs, challenges persist with weak demand post-festival season, subdued steel prices, and limited export opportunities, according to analysts at Elara Capital. 

 

Thus, analysts at Elara Capital estimate JSW Steel’s revenue at Rs 40,724 crore, down 2.9 per cent Y-o-Y, with Ebitda expected to decline 30.1 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 5,020.3 crore. Recurring PAT is forecast to drop 80.3 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 475.6 crore.

 

Antique Stock Broking 

Analysts at Antique Stock Broking anticipate a slight Y-o-Y decline in consolidated revenue, primarily due to lower realisations, which will be partially offset by higher volumes. Consolidated Ebitda is projected to reach approximately Rs 5,010 crore, reflecting a 30.3 per cent Y-o-Y and 7.9 per cent Q-o-Q decline, driven by weaker realisations, though somewhat cushioned by lower coking coal costs. 

 

The adjusted profit is expected to be Rs 480 crore, representing a 80.2 per cent Y-o-Y drop compared to a profit of Rs 2,420 crore in Q3FY24.

 

Nuvama 

Analysts at Nuvama expect JSW’s Ebitda/t to decline Rs 1,439 Q-o-Q to Rs 7,318, primarily due to lower steel prices (down Rs 2,400/t Q-o-Q), partially offset by lower coking coal costs. The company's volume is projected to grow by 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 5.62MT. 

 

Analysts estimate revenue at Rs 42,251.9 crore, reflecting a 1 per cent Y-o-Y increase, while Ebitda is expected to decline 26 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 5,308.3 crore. Core PAT is projected at Rs 662.6 crore.  ALSO READ: IndiGo to report Q3 2025 results on Friday; here's what analysts expect

 

Nomura 

Nomura has revised down its Q3FY25F consolidated Ebitda forecast by 21 per cent, citing weaker-than-expected volumes and declining HRC prices. Its Ebitda projections are 5 per cent below Bloomberg consensus estimates. 

 

The firm's India volume estimates have been lowered by 3 per cent to 5.6MT, reflecting a 7 per cent Y-o-Y growth. Despite a price hike of Rs 1,000-2,000/t across JSW's flats and longs portfolio in October 2024, domestic HRC prices have fallen by Rs 2,500/t. 

 

Consequently, analysts now anticipate a Rs 1,800/t decline in India realisation for Q3 instead of a flat Q-o-Q trend. On the cost front, a reduction of Rs 1,260/t in raw material costs, driven by lower coking coal prices, is expected. JSW's consolidated and India Ebitda/t is projected at Rs 9,575/t and Rs 8,300/t, respectively. The revised Ebitda estimates are Rs 1,800/t below previous forecasts, with a Q-o-Q Ebitda/t decline of Rs 560 for the India business.