RIL stock tests 10-yr support, can tank 35% to Rs 850 if breaks this level

The Rs 1,190 level holds the key for Reliance long-term trend; break and sustained trade can open the doors of a likely fall below Rs 1,000-mark, suggests technical charts.

In spite of the 1:1 bonus issue, Reliance Industries (RIL) stock has witnessed a dismal run on the stock exchanges thus far in the calendar year 2024. On a year-till-date (YTD) the stock is down 1.7 per cent as against a 13 per cent rally on the BSE Sensex.  The second-half of this year has been particularly bad for RIL stock as it tumbled nearly 25 per cent from a high of Rs 1,617 in July to a low of Rs 1,217 in November. In the process, Reliance stock tested its 10-year super trend line support, and then bounced back.  Historical chart shows, RIL stock delivered a massive 693 per cent rally after the breakout above the super trend on the long-term charts, way back in May 2014. Chart shows, that in the last 10 years the present instance is just the third time that the stock has come within striking distance of this key support price.  Now that the stock has gained 7.5 per cent from its recent low around the super trend line; is the worst over for RIL stock or is there further threat remaining? Here's what the technical chart suggests:  Reliance Industries (RIL)  Current Price: Rs 1,309  Downside Risk: 18.8% - 35%  Support: Rs 1,283; Rs 1,244; Rs 1,190  Resistance: Rs 1,337; Rs 1,420; Rs 1,450  RIL stock is exhibiting a divergent trend on the daily and weekly charts; the stock seems favourably placed as per the daily chart, while the weekly chart hints at limited upside.  Having said that, the overall bias seems slightly tiled in favour of the bears as RIL stock has been trading below its key moving averages on the daily scale. Further, the shorter-term moving averages are below the long-term averages, thus implying a negative bias.    At present, the stock is critically placed around its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) which stands at Rs 1,300; below which stands the key super trend line support, which also coincides with the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) around Rs 1,190 levels. Near support for the stock exists at Rs 1,283 and Rs 1,244.  In case, the support zone gets violated the stock can enter a long-term bearish phase, with immediate dip towards Rs 1,063 levels; below which a slide towards Rs 850 levels seems likely - this translates into a worst case scenario of fall up to 35 per cent from current levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  On the upside, the stock has immediate resistance at Rs 1,337; above which the stock can spurt towards Rs 1,420 and Rs 1,450 levels. The stock will need to trade consistently above Rs 1,420 levels in order to reverse the current negative set-up on the charts.