The bears were in full control, effortlessly breaking through support levels and erasing more than 1200 points from the all-time high in just five sessions. In our previous outlook, we identified the key resistance level of 26200 - 26300, the 100% target of the Year 2023 flag breakout, and after failing to surpass that level, prices precisely corrected from there.
During the initial part of August and September, we saw nervousness in the market followed by a rally to new highs. However, the start of October paints a different picture as the market has broken below the trendline connecting the higher lows of the last two months, confirming a channel breakdown.
With prices closing just at the key 50 EMA support, this has been one of the sharpest weekly drops in recent times, forming a strong bearish candle on the weekly chart, signaling more potential downside ahead. Given these observations, further pain is on the cards, with the next key support around the September swing low of 24750 followed by 24500.
However, traders should exercise caution with short positions, as some in-between bounces cannot be ruled out due to oversold conditions in momentum indicators on intraday charts.
On the upside, Friday's high near 25500, which coincides with the 20 EMA and the channel breakdown level, will act as a stiff resistance, with 25300 being the immediate resistance before that. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, and traders should avoid unnecessary risks. Its also crucial to monitor global developments, as well as regulatory updates, which have been contributing to the recent market selloff.
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