Martian dream vs reality

The road to Mars is long and arduous. But with the visionary drive of Elon Musk, we might find ourselves among the stars one day

Elon Musk has unveiled an audacious vision: A million-strong Martian metropolis. For his SpaceX team, it’s a heady mix of sci-fi fantasy (think spacesuits, domed habitats, the prospects of an interplanetary baby boom, and zipping around in Tesla Cybertrucks on a new world) and logistical nightmare. The American entrepreneur’s grand blueprint has reignited the question: Can we really colonise Mars?

Meanwhile, hundreds of kilometres above Earth, a different narrative has unfolded. Astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore are stranded aboard the International Space Station, after a malfunction in their cutting-edge Boeing Starliner. Their prolonged stay serves as a stark reminder: The path to our planetary neighbour is fraught with unforeseen challenges.

Nasa’s projections do not anticipate human landings on Mars until the 2040s. Mr  Musk wants a Martian foothold in just 20 years! To fund this, the world’s richest man is ready to empty his pockets (he has publicly declared that he only accumulates assets to fund his plans for Mars), even planning to use his Boring Company for Martian tunnels. But the journey to Mars itself is a hurdle race: Navigating the flight trajectory, managing spacecraft and fuel, addressing radiation, microgravity, and astronaut health, grappling with isolation and psychological strain, ensuring communication during transit and on Mars, and refining approaches to orbital insertion (we should first master soft-landing robots on Moon).

Even the mere planning of a Mars mission is daunting. Launch windows between Earth and Mars open every two years when they are closest in their orbits, with travel durations ranging from 150 to 300 days. This makes resupplying essentials improbable: How can you send a care package across millions of kilometres?

SpaceX's Starship, already the world’s biggest rocket, will need steroids for Mars. Mr Musk envisions a colossal 150-metre-tall version. And despite reusability, each launch will cost a cool $3 million. Need a rescue ship? Forget it.

The dangers aren’t just technical. Astronauts on long ISS missions suffer bone loss, vision problems, and even genetic changes. On Mars, these threats would be amplified by the constant barrage of radiation.

So why Mars? Because it’s the best bet for self-sufficiency — a key factor for extraterrestrial colonisation. Yet, despite optimistic projections for robotic manufacturing, Mars won’t attain full autonomy until its population swells into the millions. Martians, despite making the most of locally available materials, will rely on Earth for specialised goods, and shipping them through such a distance will be expensive.

The question then arises: What could Mars export in return? “If concentrated supplies of metals of equal or greater value than silver (such as germanium, hafnium, lanthanum, cerium, rhenium,, and a host of others) were available on Mars, they could potentially be transported back to Earth for a substantial profit,” writes Robert Zubrin of National Space Society, an American space advocacy group, and author of The Case For Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must.

Before fancy domes, early Martian astronauts will likely live

in caves for protection. And, maybe even train on the Moon first. Generating breathable air and potable water is crucial. Technologies like MOXIE, which turns Martian carbon dioxide into oxygen, offer promising solutions. Water extraction and advanced recycling will be essential for survival.

Also, space exploration comes with ethical considerations. Mars certainly has a hostile environment for human life, but on the Red Planet, humans will be the invasive species. We can’t contaminate Mars with Earth germs, and vice versa (if there are Martian life forms). Strict international rules are needed to avoid an interplanetary version of a biological invasion.

Then there’s the ownership question. Does planting a flag mean you get a whole planet? The history of European colonisation isn’t kind to such claims. If we’re going to settle on Mars, we'll need a Martian Constitution — one that learns from our mistakes here on Earth.

The road to Mars is long and arduous. But with the visionary drive of Elon Musk and the perseverance of astronauts like Williams and Wilmore, we might find ourselves among the stars one day.