What Trump's second term means for climate change and green policies

What does the second coming of Donald Trump mean for climate-change action? Here is a man who will take over as President of the United States (US), the world’s single-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-highest annual contributor. He is an avowed climate sceptic — an out-and-out advocate for fossil fuels in a time of climate crisis. He has said he will, once sworn into office, ensure that energy prices are slashed; he will rescind green-energy plans; and wants industry to go back to the time of “drill baby drill” — essentially opening more federal lands to exploration for oil and natural gas and slashing regulatory controls on his country’s fossil fuel industry.

 

But when I say this, we must note that even under the incumbent President, Joe Biden, the US has been the fossil-fuel emperor — producing more oil than any country has done before. It is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas — outproducing even Russia by over 40 per cent. So, when Mr Trump says he will go back to fossils, we must understand just how bad this will be!

 

Mr Trump has also railed against the Biden administration’s plans for renewable power and electric vehicles, calling them “industry-killing; job-killing; pro-China; and anti-America”. All in all, he wants to go back to the business of the past, rejecting completely the idea that the green transition is necessary as the world stands on a precipice of impending disaster.

 

The question then is: What next for climate-change action in the US? What next for international agreements that bring the world together to combat climate change? We need to ask this because this time, Mr Trump’s victory is not a fluke — in 2016, when he was elected President, the US and the world were uncertain what he stood for and against. Most of us thought it was just bluster. This time, he has come to power with the conviction that his people — the people of the US — want him because of his positions, including the strident denial of climate change. So, we should not be surprised by his actions; instead, the question should be how the world moves ahead to take steps to combat this runaway existential problem.

 

The fact is that Mr Biden — despite the hypocrisy of his country’s massive oil and gas production — stood different from all his predecessors on commitment to climate action. He set a bold target of reducing greenhouse gases 50-52 per cent below the 2005 levels by 2030; and to reach 100 per cent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was brilliantly conceived to become the driver of investment in clean technologies and green energy. More than anything, the US leadership meant that all countries had nowhere to hide — they were pushed to set targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and there was some concerted action as well. Not enough. Not nearly. But the narrative had changed.

 

The question also is if Mr Trump will pull his country out of the global agreements on climate change — the 2015 Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is widely held that he will. All this will weaken the global intent on decarbonisation and for building that cooperative agreement so that countries in the South get financial support for mitigation and adaptation.

 

This is then the reality that we need to contend with. But let’s be clear that all this will happen at a time when the impacts of climate change will grow and devastate more and more countries; people will get more desperately poor and this will add to the insecurity of the world. In today’s world, immigration is the driver of the shift towards strong leaders, who will keep out the illegals. This will only worsen as climate impacts intensify. These downward spirals need all of us to act; need global leadership but also strong voices to speak up, not just of the impending doom but also of the possibility of doing things differently. This is the message of hope we need today.

 

The world has no doubt moved ahead on its journey to build a low-carbon economy and this cannot be reversed so easily. There has been huge investment in green technologies, including batteries and renewable energy, and now there is an interest in this new economy — and China will be an important stakeholder with its massive investment in clean technology. But this said, we need a reboot in the way we in the environmental field have espoused our cause; we need to understand the cost of combating climate change. We need new ways towards the green transition, which is affordable and inclusive — not just in the countries of the South but also in the industrialised North. This is the message we need to take from Mr Trump’s election — it’s loud and clear and we can ignore it at our common peril.  

 

The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environment sunita@cseindia.org, X: @sunitanar