Between falling crop prices and electoral landslide: How Mahayuti prevailed

As farmers in North India, once again threaten another stir in demand of legal MSP, it remains to be seen how the Maharashtra poll results impact their agitation

A day before polling for the Assembly elections in Maharashtra on November 20, soybean prices at Latur mandi, was quoted at Rs 4,200 per quintal, 14 per cent below the government-mandated minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 4,892, according to data from agmarknet.gov.in. 

 Akola saw desi cotton fetching Rs 7,396 per quintal, barely covering the MSP of Rs 7,121 for medium-staple cotton. Onion at Lasalgaon wholesale mandi was being sold at Rs 4,000 per quintal on November 19, a steep 26 per cent fall in under three weeks.

  Falling prices of major agricultural commodities was hitting farmers hard in rural Maharashtra, leading many to predict a backlash against the ruling Mahayuti alliance in the Assembly polls. Similar agrarian discontent had played a key role in the alliance’s losses during the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

  Yet, the election results defied expectations.

  Reports suggest the Mahayuti regained as many as 117 Assembly seats it had lost in the Lok Sabha elections (on the basis of Assembly segments in a parliamentary constituency) just months earlier.

  In the state’s agrarian heartlands of Marathwada and Vidarbha, where agricultural issues dominated public discourse, the Mahayuti’s performance was particularly striking. 

  Results indicate the alliance won 41 of 46 seats in Marathwada and 37 of 62 in Vidarbha. An Axis My-India exit poll released a day before the results, showed 45 per cent of respondents in Marathwada favoured the Mahayuti over the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 38 per cent, while in Vidarbha, the margin was even wider at 48 per cent to 36 per cent.

  The same survey showed that around 48 per cent of farmers favoured voting for the Mahayuti, against 39 per cent for the MVA. The Axis survey was among the closest to the final tally.

  Despite perceptible distress in the state’s rural economy, the Mahayuti managed to win back its vote bank within months of losing a section of it.

  Some credited this to the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, a welfare scheme benefiting a large number of women in farming households, which was said to have resonated deeply with rural women. However, experts argue this was only part of the story.

  Interventions by the central government to address falling crop prices along with other factors may have played a part.

  While some measures were criticised for being belated, they did provide relief to struggling farmers.

  For instance, the Centre raised import duties on edible oils by 20-22 per cent to curb the price drop. Though, late in the day, the step somewhat arrested the fall in soy prices and helped it recover from Rs 3,500 per quintal earlier in the season to Rs 4,000-4,200 by November, still below the MSP.

  Additionally, on November 16, just days before the polling, the central government relaxed quality norms for soybean procurement by state agencies, allowing purchases with 15 per cent moisture content instead of the earlier 12 per cent. This change was in response to complaints from farmers in Maharashtra about slow procurement due to stringent quality standards.

The government has announced plans to procure 3.2 million tonnes of soybeans at MSP this year, with a significant portion expected from Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the two largest soybean-producing states. Total production is said to be more than 12 million tonnes. However, only 40,000 tonnes had been procured by early November because of strict quality standards.

  The opposition MVA’s failure to effectively capitalise on rural discontent, according to experts, is another key factor behind the Mahayuti’s resurgence. “The ruling alliance spent resources liberally in the final few days of the campaign to turn the tide in rural Maharashtra,” a senior executive from a leading trading firm in Maharashtra. 

Ashok Dhawale, president of the All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) and a prominent farmer leader, highlighted internal disarray within the MVA. Prolonged seat-sharing negotiations among its constituents dragged on until after Diwali, leaving little time for candidates to campaign on issues like falling crop prices. “MVA partners started raising the issue of falling soybean and cotton rates just 8-10 days before the polls. By that time, it was too late to build momentum,” Dhawale observed.

  Instead of focusing on the rising inflation that was eroding rural incomes, the MVA attempted to match or surpass the Mahayuti’s promise of higher disbursements under the Ladki Bahin Yojana. This approach, according to Dhawale, failed to resonate with voters.

  Many beneficiaries of the scheme were rural women labourers, a group that the Mahayuti successfully mobilised, noted Dhawale, adding the MVA’s confidence following its strong performance in the Lok Sabha elections may have led to complacency. “The parties could have built mass movements around the soybean and onion crises, but there wasn’t enough time,” he said.

  In northern India, farmers are once again threatening protests over demands for legal MSP guarantees. Whether the Mahayuti’s electoral success strengthens or weaken these movements remains uncertain.