With former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's bail in an alleged land scam case grabbing headlines on Friday, his successor, Champai Soren, wasted no time. Champai’s Cabinet approved as many as 40 proposals in a single day, a move seen as a strategic effort to replicate the party’s Lok Sabha success in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The release of Hemant Soren has fuelled speculation of a significant reshuffle within the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal government. While Hemant hinted that the JMM would decide on his role, party insiders suggest Champai might continue as chief minister until the Assembly elections, with Hemant leading the campaign in a state where tribals constitute 26 per cent of the population, according to the 2011 Census.
Tribals make the difference
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the JMM-led INDIA bloc outperformed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), winning all five constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) among the state’s 14 seats. This stands in stark contrast to neighbouring Chhattisgarh and Odisha, where the BJP dominated.
Political observers credit the INDIA bloc’s success to the sympathy garnered after the arrest of a tribal chief minister and the advocacy for a separate code for the Sarna tribal religion in the Census, acknowledging their unique practices and customs, besides religion. Adivasi Jan Parishad chief Prem Sahi Munda pointed to the non-implementation of the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act (PESA Act) and forest rights for tribals as decisive issues, highlighted in pre-poll rallies by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in the state.
Hemant’s wife Kalpana Soren, who recently entered politics with an Assembly bypoll victory from Gandey, too, has been vocal against the BJP, accusing it of injustices against her husband. “A narrative was set that the BJP would take away the land of tribals. Also, the party didn’t capitalise on its tribal leaders, relying instead on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity,” said senior journalist Chandan Mishra.
The BJP’s choice of non-tribal Raghubar Das as chief minister in 2019 did not yield favourable results, nor did appointing Babulal Marandi, from the dominant Santhal community, as state unit president help in the recent elections. The BJP’s seat tally fell to eight from 11 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, with significant losses, including for former Union Tribal Affairs Minister and ex-Chief Minister Arjun Munda. Its ally, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), bagged the only seat it contested.
In the 2019 elections to the 81-member Assembly, the JMM won a record 30 seats — securing a strong presence in the tribal belt by winning 19 of the 28 ST-reserved segments.
Its ally, Congress, also saw its best performance since Jharkhand’s formation in 2000, winning 16 seats overall. The BJP, in contrast, secured only two tribal seats, with its total falling to 25 in 2019 from 37.
Political observer Sudhir Pal noted that the BJP is unlikely to repeat past mistakes. Marandi has been positioned as the party’s face for the upcoming elections, with the selection of Mohan Charan Majhi, a tribal from the neighbouring Keonjhar district, as Odisha chief minister signalling a strategic shift. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, co-election in-charge for Jharkhand along with Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has been actively engaging with tribal leaders, including Hemant Soren’s sister-in-law Sita, now in the BJP.
“We have to address the basic problems of tribal society. I am trying to understand how we can work for the identity, economic, social, and political development of tribal society,” he told the media.
Pal observed: “The names for the BJP’s in-charges for the state assume significance as Chouhan belongs to an Other Backward Class and Sarma is known for his firebrand speeches. Frontal organisations have been tasked with changing the narrative as the BJP plans to focus on consolidating non-tribal votes amid falling acceptance among tribals.”
Importance of allies
Chandra Prakash Choudhary, the lone AJSU MP who belongs to the Kurmi caste, could play a crucial role, with the BJP potentially offering more seats to its ally. Sudesh Mahto, AJSU chief, has already begun criticising the current state government’s“erroneous policies and governance practices”.
“What might help the BJP is the weak organisational setup of the Congress and the arrest of ministers, including Alamgir Alam of the Congress, in a money laundering case. It may be difficult for the Congress to repeat its 2019 performance, which would impact the INDIA bloc performance,” said Mishra.
Focus on promises
“Champai has proven his mettle as CM. But time is running out for him to implement the promises,” said Pal.
Over the past month, the chief minister has been proactive, inaugurating and laying the foundation for numerous schemes worth nearly Rs 314 crore, and also approving a caste-based survey on the lines of Bihar.
On Friday, his Cabinet approved financial assistance of Rs 1,000 per month for 4.5 million women in the state, free electricity of 200 units per month for 414,000 domestic consumers, and Rs 15 lakh health cover per family that will benefit 3.34 million people excluded from the BJP-led central government’s Ayushman Bharat Yojana. The government has also announced it would waive loans of up to Rs 2 lakh for over 191,000 farmers, provide 40,000 government jobs within the next three months, secure jobs for locals in private companies, and offer financial assistance to support those interested in self-employment.
A house of instability
In the 24 years since statehood, Jharkhand has had 12 CMs and three periods of President's rule. No single party has secured a majority ever in the 81-member Assembly
| 2005 | 2009 | 2014 | 2019 |
BJP | 30 | 18 | 37 | 25 |
JMM | 17 | 18 | 19 | 30 |
Congress | 9 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
RJD | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
JVM(P)* | 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
AJSU | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
JD(U) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Others | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Note: The first Assembly was constituted on the basis of the Bihar Assembly elections held in 2000; while the BJP's allies are AJSU and JVM(P), the Congress and the RJD are partners of JMM
*JVM(P) was formed in 2006
Source: ECI