India Economic Forecast

From Modi's austerity appeal and India's learning crisis to geopolitical trade shifts, AI accountability and public health reforms - here are today's key Opinion takeaways

IMD flags a 31 per cent probability of "below normal" monsoon and a 35 per cent chance of rainfall below 90 per cent of LPA-risks for agriculture, heatwaves, and demand

Fragile West Asia ceasefire and oil risks test India's economy, as the RBI balances rupee stability, inflation control, and growth amid rising global uncertainty

The ratings agency expects growth to moderate from FY26 levels, supported by consumption and investment, while warning of risks from geopolitical tensions and energy prices

RBI's monthly report says India's near-term outlook remains strong, supported by benign inflation, fiscal consolidation and renewed FPI interest after trade deals with the EU and the US

Amid data and fiscal uncertainties, the govt faces the difficult task of creating conditions to boost private capex

There's no shortage of forecasts for 2026, but 2025 shows why we should treat them with scepticism

Key metrics, such as goods and services tax (GST) collection, e-way bills, and toll revenues, increased in October

Due to the government's efforts toward fiscal consolidation, central government debt is projected to decline from 58.2 per cent of GDP in FY2023 to 56.8 per cent in FY2024

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget on Feb. 1, factoring in the growth projections

India has the potential and should aim to grow at 8 per cent annually to bring about transformative changes in the lives of millions of people by around 2050, said noted economist and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers here on Saturday. India's GDP growth in 2022-23 was 7.2 per cent as against 9.1 per cent in 2021-22. According to the Reserve Bank of India's projections, India's GDP will likely grow 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal year. Summers clarified that 8 per cent growth was not his forecast on the basis of current policy, but added, "given India's potential, even in a more challenging world economy, I believe that it is an imaginable goal. "...an eightfold expansion in the economy is transformative in the lives of hundreds of millions of people. I think it is something to target as India defines its greatness in this next century." In his lecture on 'The World is on Fire', organised by the CII in partnership with Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), the eminent .

The government also criticised Moody's comment that it expects high nominal GDP growth and ongoing fiscal consolidation to "stabilise the government debt burden at high levels

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The IMF had revised India's forecast from 1.6 percentage points from 9 per cent in January 2022 to 7.4 per cent in July 2022

S&P noted that India's domestic recovery from Covid-19 would continue to support growth in FY23

Goldman Sachs has revised lower its growth projections for India after the April-June quarterly gross domestic product readings missed market estimates.

What do a recent announcement by the finance minister and the projections of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee have to say about India's real GDP growth in FY23? Let's find out

"While the government's capital infusion into public sector banks will help them meet Basel capital requirements, it will not boost credit growth," the agency said

The Reserve Bank of India revised its forecast of economic growth for the current fiscal year (2020-21) to minus 7.5 per cent compared to its earlier forecast of minus 9.5 per cent

While the economy will still see a fall in FY21, it is likely to be less pronounced than what experts had forecast earlier