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Indian Inflation
Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2 per cent, lower than its earlier estimate of 3.5 per cent. In its latest report, Crisil said that the moderation implies a decline of 140 basis points in CPI inflation during this financial year, which is likely to give space for monetary easing. It said the RBI may cut rates by another 25 basis points this year. According to Crisil, lower inflation and reduced interest rates should increase domestic demand in the economy as global headwinds mount. The report also said that the excessive rains during the kharif season is a risk as it could cause disruptions in key horticulture and foodgrain-growing regions like Punjab which is facing its worst floods in four decades. CPI inflation inched up to 2.1 per cent in August 2025, from 1.6 per cent in July, moving above the RBI tolerance threshold of two per cent. Food inflation has started to move up from low levels but trails the head
Ratings firm Crisil said that headline inflation is expected to average 3.5 per cent this fiscal as compared to 4.6 per cent in the last financial year. In its research report for August, the rating agency said that healthy agricultural production is likely to keep food inflation in check. The kharif sowing is up a healthy four per cent year-on-year as of August 8. "We expect headline inflation to average 3.5 per cent this fiscal from 4.6 per cent in the last," Crisil said in its research report. Headline inflation is defined as a rise in prices of all items in the CPI, including food and energy. Assuming geopolitical uncertainties remain under control, Brent crude oil prices are projected to be subdued at USD60 to USD65 per barrel in the current financial year, which should help contain non-food inflation, the report said. Crisil said another bout of repo cut is expected this fiscal. A cumulative cut of 100 basis points so far, along with adequate liquidity, has ensured a swift
The finance ministry on Monday said there is room for further easing of interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as the inflation is comfortably below the central bank's median target of 4 per cent. Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), has remained below 4 per cent since February and dipped further to more than six-year-low of 2.82 per cent in May. "Core inflation remains subdued, and overall inflation is comfortably below the RBI's 4 per cent target, affording room for the easing cycle to be sustained," said the finance ministry's monthly review report. The central has cumulatively reduced the short-term benchmark lending rate (repo) by 100 basis points since February. The next meeting of the RBI's rate-setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- during August 4-6. The RBI has projected headline inflation at 3.4 per cent for the second quarter of the fiscal year, while in the first quarter, actual inflation came below the target of the RBI. "It
The ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation as global energy prices are lower than last year, which will limit current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. S&P Global Ratings Economist Vishrut Rana said a key mitigating factor of India is that energy prices are still lower than last year --? Brent crude oil traded at roughly USD 85/barrel a year ago and current prices are still lower. "This will help contain both current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures -- while energy prices may rise moderately, the path of food prices will have a higher impact on inflation. Overall, we do not expect significant pressure on the Indian rupee or inflation," Rana told PTI. Rates of the benchmark Brent crude fell to around USD 69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire". Israel and Iran .
The Congress on Thursday alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's entire focus is not on reducing inflation, but on showing low inflation figures, and said a government that is focused on propaganda and data manipulation is not one that can be relied on to work for people's welfare. Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said India has seen ten years of a "Modi-made inflation", created and fostered by the government's poor policy-making. "The prime minister's entire focus is not on reducing inflation, but on showing low inflation figures. The government is now concertedly attempting to manipulate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WP1) figures to show inflation as being under control, even as the ground reality is that the common man is facing non-stop price rise," Ramesh said in a statement. He said price rise has been particularly high for food, fuel, and items of daily use, and it has placed a heavy burden on India's working ..
Wholesale price inflation rose to a 4-month high of 2.36 per cent in October as prices of food items, especially vegetables, and manufactured goods turned dearer, as per the government data released on Thursday. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 1.84 per cent in September 2024. It was (-) 0.26 per cent in October, last year. As per the data, inflation in food items shot up to 13.54 per cent in October, as against 11.53 per cent in September. This was led by 63.04 per cent inflation in vegetables, as against 48.73 per cent in September. Inflation in potato and onion remained high at 78.73 per cent and 39.25 per cent, respectively, in October. Fuel and power category witnessed deflation of 5.79 per cent in October, against a deflation of 4.05 per cent in September. In manufactured items, inflation was 1.50 per cent in October, as against 1 per cent in the previous month. The month of October witnessed the second consecutive month of rise in WPI inflation print. WPI