Indian Inflation

RBI's commentary on inflation 'opens the door for rate hikes in the next meeting' in August, according to Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC Holdings Plc

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said underlying inflation pressures remained benign, although second-round effects warranted vigilance

Economists expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged and rely on intervention and regulatory measures to manage rupee volatility while maintaining focus on inflation

RBI warned that the West Asia conflict, rising energy prices and monsoon risks could weigh on India's growth and inflation outlook in the short term

January 2026 CPI-based inflation: The inflation remained close to the Reserve Bank of India's lower tolerance threshold

MoSPI's revised CPI modernises price collection, updates weights and aligns with global standards, reshaping how inflation trends are measured and interpreted

Core inflation, excluding food and fuel components, likely edged up to 4.53 per cent in December from an estimated 4.2 per cent-4.3 per cent in Nov, ‍partly due to a 7 per cent rally in gold prices

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said this week that recent economic data suggested there was still scope to cut interest rates

Traders attributed at least part of the slide to the RBI's reluctance to intervene, breaking with the practice of recent months as the currency weakened largely due to an elusive trade deal with US

Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2 per cent, lower than its earlier estimate of 3.5 per cent. In its latest report, Crisil said that the moderation implies a decline of 140 basis points in CPI inflation during this financial year, which is likely to give space for monetary easing. It said the RBI may cut rates by another 25 basis points this year. According to Crisil, lower inflation and reduced interest rates should increase domestic demand in the economy as global headwinds mount. The report also said that the excessive rains during the kharif season is a risk as it could cause disruptions in key horticulture and foodgrain-growing regions like Punjab which is facing its worst floods in four decades. CPI inflation inched up to 2.1 per cent in August 2025, from 1.6 per cent in July, moving above the RBI tolerance threshold of two per cent. Food inflation has started to move up from low levels but trails the head

Ratings firm Crisil said that headline inflation is expected to average 3.5 per cent this fiscal as compared to 4.6 per cent in the last financial year. In its research report for August, the rating agency said that healthy agricultural production is likely to keep food inflation in check. The kharif sowing is up a healthy four per cent year-on-year as of August 8. "We expect headline inflation to average 3.5 per cent this fiscal from 4.6 per cent in the last," Crisil said in its research report. Headline inflation is defined as a rise in prices of all items in the CPI, including food and energy. Assuming geopolitical uncertainties remain under control, Brent crude oil prices are projected to be subdued at USD60 to USD65 per barrel in the current financial year, which should help contain non-food inflation, the report said. Crisil said another bout of repo cut is expected this fiscal. A cumulative cut of 100 basis points so far, along with adequate liquidity, has ensured a swift

The finance ministry on Monday said there is room for further easing of interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as the inflation is comfortably below the central bank's median target of 4 per cent. Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), has remained below 4 per cent since February and dipped further to more than six-year-low of 2.82 per cent in May. "Core inflation remains subdued, and overall inflation is comfortably below the RBI's 4 per cent target, affording room for the easing cycle to be sustained," said the finance ministry's monthly review report. The central has cumulatively reduced the short-term benchmark lending rate (repo) by 100 basis points since February. The next meeting of the RBI's rate-setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- during August 4-6. The RBI has projected headline inflation at 3.4 per cent for the second quarter of the fiscal year, while in the first quarter, actual inflation came below the target of the RBI. "It

The ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation as global energy prices are lower than last year, which will limit current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. S&P Global Ratings Economist Vishrut Rana said a key mitigating factor of India is that energy prices are still lower than last year --? Brent crude oil traded at roughly USD 85/barrel a year ago and current prices are still lower. "This will help contain both current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures -- while energy prices may rise moderately, the path of food prices will have a higher impact on inflation. Overall, we do not expect significant pressure on the Indian rupee or inflation," Rana told PTI. Rates of the benchmark Brent crude fell to around USD 69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire". Israel and Iran .

Nageswaran said good monsoon rains, that irrigate more than half of the country's farmlands, will also bode well for the economy

Sensex Today | Stock Market close, Thursday, June 12, 2025: The Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 index settled in red, down by 1.73 per cent and 1.90 per cent, respectively

Intense heatwaves this summer did little to affect a robust harvest, offering much-needed relief to many Indian households which allocate a significant portion of their budgets to food

Forecasts for the inflation data, set to be released on May 12 at 1030 GMT, ranged from 2.8 per cent to 4.0 per cent

Cut in the repo rate comes after 11 consecutive MPC meetings in which the rate remained unchanged at 6.50%

Indian households grappled with soaring prices in 2024 as inflation strained budgets and reduced purchasing power. High inflation rate cut into savings and curbed discretionary spending of consumers

At 7:25 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 105 points lower at 24,543 levels, hinting at a gap-down start