Gold prices may see consolidation next week as focus shifts to Fed, US data

Gold prices are likely to witness a phase of consolidation in the coming week as traders weigh a mix of global economic indicators, cues from central banks and shifting geopolitical dynamics, analysts said.

Traders will monitor US housing numbers, consumer price data from the UK and Eurozone, and provisional PMI releases from key economies.

Also, investors will closely track European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde speech as well as commentary by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will provide further insights for the broader trajectory of the bullion prices, they added.

"Gold prices are likely to see some consolidation/correction in the coming week as focus now remains on the incoming US macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve's meeting next month with interest rate cuts in focus.

"In the week ahead the focus will be on US housing data, CPI numbers from the UK and the Euro zone and the provisional data on manufacturing/ services PMI from across regions," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, said.

Pranav Mer noted that safe-haven demand has eased after Washington and Beijing agreed to extend trade negotiations for another 90-days.

Meanwhile, US-Russia talks to end war in Ukraine had some progress but ended without any conclusion.

According to Mer, weaker US macroeconomic data have highlighted a slowdown in the economic activity, but a firm producer and import price data have kept inflation concerns alive, leaving Fed officials divided on the timing of interest rate cuts.

Last week, the most traded gold futures for October contract declined by ₹1,648 per 10 grams or nearly 2 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices retreated last week as futures on the MCX slipped nearly 2 per cent.

He added that "prices declined from highs of ₹1,02,000 to lows of ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams after US President Donald Trump clarified that gold imports into the US would not face tariffs, in turn threatening the upside momentum of the precious metal".

Going forward, Mallya added, developments from US-Russia discussions will be critical. "If not, the possibility of increased tariffs on India will dent the macros and in turn lift gold prices in the week ahead," he added.

On Saturday, Comex gold futures for December contracts ended lower at $3,382.60 per ounce in New York.

Manav Modi, Analyst - Precious Metal Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said gold prices lost ground last week as safe-haven demand eased amid shifting geopolitical and economic developments.

The White House clarified that reports of US tariffs on Swiss gold were inaccurate, reversing a brief price rally that had been driven by confusion following a Customs and Border Protection note.

At the same time, optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine gained traction, particularly after a high-profile meeting between US President Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

Also, the extension of the US-China tariff truce signalled easing trade tensions further capping demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

On the supportive side, Modi said a weaker dollar and rising expectations of a US rate cut in September provided a cushion. "Soft inflation data spurred dovish bets and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at a deeper 50-basis-points reduction.

Modi also stated that physical gold demand in Asia, usually a seasonal driver, remained subdued due to elevated prices.

Investors are turning their focus on preliminary US PMI data and Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the broader trajectory of Washington-Moscow discussions, he added.

Overall, the near-term outlook for gold will hinge on how incoming data and central bank commentary shape market sentiment, analysts said.