Advance estimates fail to gauge economy correctly in periods of uncertainty

Advance estimates have varied from actual numbers during 2008 crisis, Eurozone crisis, 'policy paralysis' and Covid lockdown years

Many, including Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das, believe that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has exceeded 7 per cent  for 2022-23. The first and second advance estimates for the year had projected a 7 per cent growth.

If the first actual number for the year, to be released on May 31, shows that GDP growth has indeed exceeded 7 per cent, it won’t be the first such variance between the advance estimates and provisional estimates. 

Advance estimates have varied from actual numbers during periods of uncertainties: whether it was during the global financial crisis of