India's GDP growth in Q1FY26 likely eased after March-quarter high

Indicators give mixed signals ahead of 50% Trump tariffs

India’s economic growth likely eased sequentially in the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY26 after clocking a four-quarter high in the March quarter of FY25, due to muted industrial output and sluggish urban demand, high-frequency indicators showed.

 

However, growth in Q1FY26 is expected to have drawn support from improved rural activity, healthy government expenditure, and front-loading of exports to the US before the punitive tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration kicked in.

 

Projections for Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) growth by economists varied widely, between 6.3 per cent and 7 per cent. In the March quarter of FY25, GDP grew