Statsguru: Record tax filings indicate potential growth challenges ahead

New records in tax filing show signs of headwinds to growth going forward. The government announced that tax filing for the assessment year 2022-23 (AY24) had touched a record figure of 81.8 million as of December. This is higher than the 75.2 million seen in the previous year (chart 1).

Gross total income has gone up 229 per cent since AY13 and was nearing Rs 70 trillion as of AY22. Tax payable was nearing Rs 10 trillion (chart 2).

The sub-components of gross total income show that long-term and short-term capital gains grew the fastest. Long-term capital gains grew at a compound annual rate of 30.1 per cent over the last five years, while short-term capital gains went up by 26.7 per cent. Gross total income grew at 12.6 per cent (chart 3).

Capital gains refers to gains from holding an asset like property, gold, or stocks over a period of time. The stock market has boomed since the pandemic and a record number of investor accounts were opened. Individuals accounted for a third of the long-term and short-term capital gains in the latest year. An analysis of past return data shows that they also drove over 90 per cent increase in returns filed (chart 4).

Interestingly, many individuals filing tax returns declare zero tax liability. They accounted for two-thirds of the total individual returns filed in the latest year for which data is available (chart 5).

Growth in returns filed has fallen to single digit. Raising income levels of individuals across states may be a challenge to pushing growth beyond 9 per cent seen in the latest year. Most taxpayers are based in a few developed states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat. The top seven states account for over 60 per cent of the non-zero returns filed (chart 6).