Indian Economy

Why El Nino could become India's next growth and inflation challenge

With rainfall turning weaker and El Nino risks rising, India could face pressure on farm output, food inflation, rural demand and overall economic growth in FY27

'Next 20 years will mirror geopolitical turbulence of 1925-1945,' warns CEA

V Anantha Nageswaran said businesses must prioritise resilience over efficiency as geopolitical tensions rise, while arguing that AI will increase, not reduce, human cognitive load

India must use West Asia respite to pursue overdue policy reforms

An end to the West Asia conflict augurs well for India, but it should not lull the government into policy inaction

Profits are rising across corporate India. Why isn't investment taking off?

Listed companies' net income is nearing 6 per cent of GDP, but a lack of corresponding investment in factories and other productive assets is limiting job creation and widening inequality

Focus of manufacturing policy should be on new startups and tech growth

Perhaps the most important development challenge India faces at present is the revival of manufacturing growth and a greater prospect of achieving the 25 per cent target, articulated first in 2012 and

West Asia conflict: From oil to inflation, how did the crisis impact India?

The West Asia crisis affected India through higher oil prices, pressure on the rupee, weaker trade, rising aviation costs and inflation. Here's how the economy absorbed the shock

US-Iran peace deal may help boost India's exports, stabilise rupee

The announcement that the US and Iran have finalised a deal to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to boost India's exports to West Asia, which was severely impacted by the hostilities, spur manufacturing activity and help stabilise the rupee, according to exporters and experts. They said the announcement, if implemented successfully, would reduce pressure on India's import bill, ease inflationary covers and create a more conducive environment for trade. The peace agreement would be signed on June 19 in Switzerland. The US and Iran have reached a peace deal to end a four-month war that disrupted global energy supplies, pushed oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, and brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional conflict. For India, which relies heavily on West Asia for crude oil, LPG and LNG supplies, the deal promises relief from high energy prices, pressure on the rupee, and inflation risks that intensified during the conflict, econom

India's GDP growth to slow to 6.6% in FY27 amid global headwinds: BMI

India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal as compared to 7.7 per cent in FY26, on weaker investments and consumption growth and trade shocks from the West Asia crisis, BMI, a Fitch group company, said. According to government data released last week, GDP growth in FY26 accelerated to 7.7 per cent from 7.1 per cent in FY25, supported by healthy consumption and robust investment activity. BMI expects the rupee to trade in the range of 95.1 against the US dollar this calender year. It said the rupee's depreciation from its 87 average level in 2025 will support export competitiveness, offsetting the drag on GDP from the Iran conflict's terms-of-trade shock. The GST reforms implemented in September 2025 caused a consumption boom in December quarter FY26. Thereafter, consumption growth fell by 1.1 percentage points to 7.1 per cent y-o-y in March quarter FY26. "Looking ahead, we continue to expect 6.6 per cent GDP growth in FY2026/27. Our projection represents a

Real cost of freebies is the erosion in quality of public spending

State debt and deficits do not capture the damage that doles inflict on the quality of public spending

India 'bright spot' in global economy despite uncertainties: Chandrasekaran

India continues to be a "bright spot" in the global economy despite geopolitical uncertainties, and offers "strong growth" as well as a very large market, even as consumer preferences and spending patterns are undergoing constant change, Tata Consumer Products Chairman N Chandrasekaran said on Wednesday. Addressing shareholders of the Tata Group's FMCG arm Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) at its 63rd Annual General Meeting, Chandrasekaran said the world today is being reshaped by geopolitical shifts, supply chain disruptions and realignments, energy transition and rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence. This year started on an optimistic note with key developments such as the landmark trade agreement with the European Union and finalisation of the framework for an interim bilateral trade pact between India and the United States. However, concerns over economic slowdown, weakening output and inflationary pressures resurfaced after the outbreak of the West Asia conflict late .

Fitch cuts India's FY27 GDP forecast to 6.4%, warns of US-Iran war impact

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday lowered its GDP growth projections for the current fiscal to 6.4 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.7 per cent, saying that the US-Iran war will slow down the economy in the September and December quarters. Fitch said it expects a slowdown in economic growth in FY27 from the 7.4 per cent clocked in FY26 as rising prices erode real incomes and dampen consumer spending, amid a resilient capital expenditure. "We expect GDP growth to ease to 6.4 per cent in FY27, a downward revision of 0.3pp from March. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth, but lower imports in real terms imply positive contributions to growth from net external demand," Fitch Ratings said in its June Global Economic Outlook. Last week, the RBI had cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent and upped its inflation projection to 5.1 per cent. The rating agency said the slowdown in the economy will be most apparent in the second and third quarter of FY27, as

Capital flows can support the rupee, but exports must sustain its strength

Tax breaks and RBI measures may attract foreign funds and support the rupee, but lasting currency strength depends on exports, FDI and competitiveness

A growth surprise: Healthy Q4 GDP print lends cushion amid hazy outlook

India's economy grew 7.8% in Q4 FY26, beating forecasts, but risks from the West Asia crisis, higher oil prices and a weak monsoon cloud the outlook

Monetary policy: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's optimism and caution

RBI sees India's economy as resilient, but warns that geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, inflation risks and a weak monsoon could test growth

India's GDP grows 7.8% in Q4 FY26 despite ongoing West Asia crisis

Full-year GDP growth pegged at 7.7%

How India can halt capital flight as trade deficit widens, rupee falls

With the rupee nearing the psychologically important 100-per-dollar mark, RBI Guv Malhotra and PM Modi may need to raise interest rates and offer targeted tax incentives to stem capital outflows

'India's fiscal deficit may rise to 4.7% of GDP in FY27 amid West Asia war'

India's fiscal deficit may widen to 4.7 per cent of GDP in FY27 as higher oil prices, subsidy costs and revenue risks from the West Asia conflict weigh on finances, writes Aditi Nayar of ICRA

Policy complexity: RBI MPC will have to reckon with several moving parts

With oil prices elevated and monsoon risks looming, the RBI is expected to hold rates steady while reassessing inflation and growth forecasts

India set to bargain hard in trade negotiations with US, UK this week

Trade agreements with the US and the UK could help cushion some of the headwinds while attracting foreign investment at a time when the rupee is under great pressure

Manufacturing PMI rises to 3-month high in May as demand stays firm

Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in 3 months in May, supported by stronger domestic demand, while input cost inflation remained elevated amid continued geopolitical uncertainties