Indian Economy

Morgan Stanley pegs India GDP growth at 6.7% in FY27

Sustained high oil prices, Morgan Stanley cautioned, could trigger non-linear and progressively larger impacts on growth, as the burden on households and firms intensifies over time.

Moody's slashes 2026 India growth forecast to 6% amid high energy costs

Moody's Ratings on Tuesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for year 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6 per cent on subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity amid higher energy costs. In its Global Macro Outlook May update, Moody's said over the next six months, the impact from higher energy prices and fuel and fertilizer-related shortages will vary widely across countries, reflecting differences in exposure and resilience. "The global outlook remains highly uncertain amid an increasingly prolonged confrontation and fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, We estimate growth losses ranging from around 0.8 ppt for India," Moody's said. For calendar year 2027, Moody's slashed GDP growth estimates by 0.5 percentage points to 6 per cent for India, reflecting lingering headwinds that gradually fade as shipping flows stabilise and energy supplies improve, allowing underlying economic activity to recover. Moody's said India is "particularly vulnerable" t

India must replicate Apple story many times over: NITI Aayog's Rajiv Gauba

At the CII Annual Business Summit 2026, Rajiv Gauba said India must move from "prohibited unless permitted" to "permitted unless prohibited" to deepen reforms

Prosperity is both India's ambition and destiny: RBI dy governor Gupta

RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta says India has entered a virtuous cycle of growth and stability, with many states likely to approach high-income levels by 2047

Modi's gold warning sparks big question: Is India facing economic stress?

Gold Buying Could Hurt the Rupee: Why Modi Issued an Unusual Appeal to Indians

India's growth to slow to 6.7% on waning momentum, oil price shock: BMI

India's economic growth is likely to decelerate to 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal, from 7.7 per cent in 2025-26, with the GDP expansion expected to slow significantly due to waning momentum and oil price shock from Iran war, BMI said on Monday. BMI, a Fitch Group firm, also said that the prospect of the Iran-US conflict escalating in scope presents downside risk to its growth outlook and India must balance spending needs on defence and fuel price stabilisation against fiscal consolidation agenda. The tax reforms in GST and income tax carried out in 2025 will partly offset effects of cost-push inflation, BMI said, adding looser monetary policy will support capital spending, as increased uncertainty amid the war and higher input prices hurt investment. BMI estimates that India's economy grew 8 per cent y-o-y in the January-March quarter of 2026, faster than its original 7.8 per cent projection. It has revised its growth forecast for 2025-26 upwards by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7

Statsguru: Big welfare promises confront strained state economies

Welfare promises dominate politics even as several states face rising fiscal stress and uneven economic capacity

Odisha pitches east coast-led growth as India's next economic engine

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi urged industries to back east coast-led growth, positioning the state as a future manufacturing and logistics hub

Why Moody’s says India is the world’s most resilient emerging market

India stands out as the most resilient emerging market since 2020, says Moody’s. Strong forex reserves and stable policies helped it weather global shocks—but rising debt and oil risks

Revamped NITI Aayog, PMEAC can aid in deciphering state of India's economy

It is time the country had access to a larger and a more varied range of assessments of the Indian economy

Best of BS Opinion: Government must expedite board appointments at PSBs

Today's Opinion wrap tracks RBI's bank board concerns, India's satellite strides, gaps in economic guidance, China's consumption debate, and a memoir on rural farming journeys

India most resilient emerging mkt, better placed to manage shocks: Moody's

India has been the most resilient large emerging market economy since 2020, and its sizeable forex reserves have helped check currency volatility and reinforce confidence during global shocks, Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report on emerging market, Moody's said India is well placed to manage future shocks because monetary policy frameworks are clear and predictable, inflation expectations are well anchored, and exchange rates can adjust when needed. Stating that India is "better placed" among emerging market sovereigns to manage future global shock, Moody's said the country would also enter any future periods of stress with strong and accessible buffers. "India's reliance on domestic funding is balanced by deep local markets and sizeable reserves ... Nevertheless, India's relatively high debt burden and weak fiscal balance limit the amount of space available to respond to successive shocks," Moody's added. It said India had made key policy choices that support stability we

India is the third-largest economy in the world in real terms

PPP-based estimates show India as the world's third-largest economy, highlighting how currency distortions mask real purchasing power, domestic demand strength, and global economic influence

Manufacturing PMI rises to 54.7 in April, cost pressure hits 44-month high

The reading remained above 50, which denotes expansion in activity, while a reading below that signifies contraction

Economic security in an insecure world needs revamped risk architecture

What's needed is a revamped economic architecture predicated on proactive risk management and improved shock absorption

West Asia war impact managed well, but some concerns remain: Madan Sabnavis

More importantly, the inflation has been kept under control as of now with the government absorbing a large part of the crude oil cost increase.

Prolonged West Asia shock raises stagflation risks for India's economy

The most visible difference will be on the balance of payments front

In open letter to PM, Bernstein flags structural risks to India's growth

Global brokerage Bernstein cautions India may under-deliver on growth potential without reforms, flagging risks from AI disruption, weak manufacturing gains and rising welfare spending

Riding out the West Asia storm: Testing India's economic resilience

Against this backdrop, the latest IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook still marks India out as an outlier of strength. India's FY27 growth forecast has been revised upward to 6.5 per cent

India likely to breach budgeted fiscal deficit target for FY27: BMI

India's fiscal deficit is likely to breach the budgeted target for current fiscal and hit 4.5 per cent of GDP as the government's policy response to the West Asia conflict could strain public finances, research firm BMI said on Wednesday. The government in 2026-27 Budget had projected a 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit, a tad lower than 4.4 per cent as per revised estimates for 2025-26. BMI also expects the government to introduce policies to redirect critical inputs to key industries, restrain business costs and improve financial support for firms. BMI said it also expects the government to consider restrictions on exports of scarce inputs such as helium and sulphur -- used for producing semiconductor chips. It said that since sulphur is also an important ingredient for making fertilisers, the government will strive to minimise disruptions to the agriculture sector, which employs 43 per cent of India's workforce. The government will seek to restrain cost increases for businesses affec