Will a poor monsoon have the same effect in 2025 as it did earlier?

India's agricultural sector is still largely dependent on the four-month-long Southwest monsoon, but that correlation may be weakening as irrigation infra develops

With about a month to go, the countdown has begun for the 2025 southwest monsoon forecast. Economists, agriculture experts and policy gurus are all looking to the skies, in a manner of speaking, as they wait for the official monsoon forecast— an event of immense significance for the entire country. Whether it’s the pure-play agriculture sector or the related ecosystem, monsoon is serious business.

 

The June-September monsoon months determine not only agriculture production but also rural consumption and general economic growth. While recent studies show that India and particularly its agriculture have, of late, become somewhat resilient to the vagaries