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Page Industries’ stock has climbed 16 per cent from its April lows, buoyed by a robust performance in the March quarter (Q4FY25). The company’s continued focus on premiumisation and expansion of its retail and distribution network is expected to sustain growth momentum. However, following the recent rally, market participants believe much of the near-term optimism is already priced in, potentially capping further upside.
Revenue in Q4FY25 grew 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), exceeding expectations. This growth was primarily volume-driven at 8.5 per cent, with the remainder supported by improved realisations and product mix. Realisations rose 2 per cent, aided by premiumisation and a growing ecommerce share.
The manufacturer and retailer of innerwear, loungewear and socks is targeting high single-digit volume growth in FY26. Growth was notably stronger in tier-II and tier-III cities compared to metros and tier-I markets. Modern retail, including branded stores and ecommerce, benefited from same-store sales growth, store expansion, and operational efficiencies. General trade gained from inventory levels and demand in non-metro regions.
According to Motilal Oswal Research, volume growth was supported by consistent product innovation, marketing, and distribution efforts. Analysts led by Naveen Trivedi noted encouraging trends in the men’s innerwear segment in recent channel checks.
On the margin front, gross margins expanded by 475 basis points to 60.9 per cent, driven by stable raw material prices. Operating profit margins improved by 462 basis points to 21.4 per cent, supported by the gross margin gains, steady staff costs and lower other expenses. The company aims to maintain margins in the 19–21 per cent range.
Elara Securities expects margins to stay above 20 per cent, aided by premiumisation, cost controls, and favourable raw material trends. Analysts led by Prerna Jhunjhunwala have an “accumulate” rating, forecasting an average annual revenue growth of 13.4 per cent and net profit growth of 17.3 per cent over FY25–28 — well above the five-year historical average.
Emkay Research, however, believes that the outlook is underwhelming with the company targeting a high single-digit volume growth in FY26 and retaining its operating profit margin band of 19-21 per cent, despite the 21.5 per cent margin in FY25. Devanshu Bansal and Mohit Dodeja of the brokerage believe that the topline outlook is lower than the Street’s, and their expectations of 15 per cent growth and the margin band retention, are on account of expected cost inflation and tech investments in FY26.
The company has been boosting its distribution presence in FY25 by adding 650 multi-brand outlets in Q4, taking the total count to 111,000, up 4 per cent. The company also expanded the exclusive branded outlets (EBO) with 17 additions in Q4 and 71 additions in FY25, taking the EBO count to 1,453.
Motilal Oswal Research expects inventory optimisation through the auto replenishment system, new product launches, capacity expansion, and digitisation initiatives to support growth. Though the valuations are rich, there is comfort in growth acceleration and margin expansion in FY26, says the brokerage which has a “buy” rating on the stock.
Kotak Research is baking in a cyclical recovery in the demand environment for Page Industries. The brokerage is, however, cautious as the current valuations price in aggressive growth recovery.
