Neighbourly insights: Pollsters ask voters to predict neighbours' choices

Instead of asking voters about their own preferences, pollsters are asking them to predict who their neighbours will vote for-adding a new twist to political polls

The US elections have thrown a spotlight on a controversial polling method called the “Neighbour Effect.” A French national who calls himself “Theo” made a significant fortune betting on Donald Trump.

 

Theo put the equivalent of at least $30 million in bets on a Trump victory on the crypto currency betting site Polymarket. He may have received winnings of somewhere between $48 million and $84 million, according to various analysts. Theo bet on an Electoral College victory, Trump winning in four key swing states, and a win of the popular vote for the Republican.

 

He claims to have placed these