Uncertainty rose dramatically in February 2022. In February 2023, my column here in Business Standard was titled “Certainly, uncertainty has declined” (https://mybs.in/2cCJLMS). Many things have gone rather well in the year that followed, and perhaps the financial markets are over-optimistic.
The grand question of the last year was about restarting the economy in developed markets (DMs) after Covid. Large-scale monetary and fiscal stimuli had given a burst of inflation. Unlike the inflation crisis of the 1970s, there was predictability on policy strategy, thanks to inflation targeting. But there was a lot of gloom about the harm to gross domestic
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