Growth at risk if Donald Trump follows through on his stated agenda

Imagine a large country where national debt has grown from around 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 125 per cent of GDP in 2024. The budget deficit averages around 6 per cent per annum, and a new government plans to cut taxes in 2025, which will probably lead to acceleration in the growth rate of the debt-to-GDP ratio.

 

The government intends to impose massive Customs duties on many goods. It’s possible trade partners will retaliate with counter-duties, triggering a trade war. All this will lead to inflation. The nation in question already has a large