 "Regardless of the outcomes of the US tariffs and India-Pakistan faceoff, change is coming for global value chains and the subcontinent")
Traders find a template of “known unknowns” useful for analysing some situations. Take the annual Budget, for instance, or the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) monetary policy reviews. You know when the event will occur, and you know it will have financial implications. But you don’t know what the implications will be. You gather resources, build scenarios, and take positions accordingly, based on the known timing.
Two events currently on the anvil contain large components of “unknowns” with economic implications. One is the global tariff war, and the other is the Indo-Pak faceoff after Pahalgam.
The tariff war falls into
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