Above average rain: A better monsoon bodes well for Indian economy

After a strong spell, the southwest monsoon is now gradually retreating, beginning with western Rajasthan and the Kachchh region in Gujarat. This year saw 8 per cent more rain than the seasonal average after 2023 witnessed a deficit of 6 per cent. With the monsoon season coming to an end, the country as a whole will most likely record “above normal” rainfall by September 30, despite the delayed emergence of La Nina. Before the onset of the rainy season, the India Meteorological Department had rightly predicted above-normal rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 870 millimetres (mm), with the actual cumulative precipitation reaching 108 per cent. The spatial distribution, however, presents an interesting picture. East and Northeast India received less than normal monsoon rainfall. In contrast, the northwest, central, and south peninsular regions received normal or more than normal rain. Surprisingly, semi-arid regions like Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Ladakh received normal to above normal precipitation, with Rajasthan reporting a 56 per cent departure from its normal rainfall level. Meanwhile, five meteorological subdivisions have reported a significant lack of rainfall so far. These include Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. The data at a more granular level shows that over 75 per cent of India’s districts recorded excess or normal monsoon rainfall.

Precipitation during the southwest monsoon remains critical for Indian agriculture, despite higher irrigation coverage than before. In this regard, bountiful rain augurs well for agricultural production in both kharif and rabi seasons. The recent data released by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare shows cumulative kharif sowing has registered a 1.5 per cent increase, with farmers planting crops across 110.5 million hectares so far, as against 108.8 million hectares last year. Paddy, pulses, oilseeds, millets, and sugarcane have shown a year-on-year increase in sowing. Given a strong relationship between annual rainfall and growth in agriculture gross value added, higher rainfall also improves prospects for the rabi season. Ample soil moisture and augmented reservoir levels provide ideal sowing conditions for crops such as wheat, mustard, and lentils, if temperatures remain stable throughout the winter season. Also, adequate rain will help spur economic growth and keep inflation in check. With the retail food inflation rate at 5.7 per cent in August, higher kharif sowing, plus benign international prices, offers hopes of easing inflationary pressures in the months ahead. The government, expecting higher production, recently lifted export curbs on some food items.

A good monsoon also remains crucial for replenishing reservoirs, drinking water, and power generation. The Central Water Commission data suggests that water levels at 155 key reservoirs in the country have risen to 157.159 billion cubic metres (BCM), or 87 per cent of their live storage capacity. Last year live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 127.713 BCM. However, short-term optimism from ample rain must not allow policymakers to lose sight of long-term water management and climate change issues. Shifting rainfall patterns, coupled with the El Nino and La Nina cycles, can pose problems. In this respect, climate-resilient agricultural practices, improving drainage systems, and flood and drought management can go a long way in mitigating the impact of erratic monsoons.