Army in control

Pakistan's political chaos is likely to continue

Pakistan’s election has not ended the political chaos that has plagued the country in recent years. With the powerful military establishment having turned against Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician whom it installed as Prime Minister in a visibly unfair election in 2018, the other parties — Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Bilawal Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party — were expected to emerge victorious in this poll. But instead, independents associated with Mr Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, managed to gain a plurality of seats even amid widespread accusations of rigging. While these accusations may be overstated, occasions when the vote count was delayed and PTI candidates excluded from the counting stations do suggest that this election was possibly even more unfair than the 2018 one that brought Mr Khan to power. Nevertheless, the PTI-backed winners fell short of a simple majority, and the results as certified by Pakistan’s Election Commission suggest a coalition of the other parties and some independents might be able to create a government similar to the Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition, which ruled for just over a year after Mr Khan was pushed out of office in April 2022.

The fears are that Pakistan might be in for a prolonged period of street protests, which would further prostrate that country’s struggling economy. The PTI has planned nationwide protests and will challenge various results in court. The local and national police have declared their intention to crack down, and Section 144 has been imposed in the capital of Islamabad — where the PTI was stunned when the PML-N appeared to win all the city seats on offer. Mr Khan’s party has been joined in protests by the various Islamist parties from the Jamaat-e-Islami to the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. These radical Islamists were largely wiped out in the election — though, ironically, in most cases their vote seems to have drifted to the PTI. The formation of a stable coalition will depend therefore less on the Islamists and more on whether the military or the PML-N can prevail on a dozen or so independents to join a coalition between the PML-N and PPP. The Karachi-based secular party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan, which represents the interests of Indian-origin Muhajirs, may emerge kingmaker, having won 17 seats.

What has been shown up, from the perspective of Indian policymakers, is surely the sustained and structural democratic deficit in Pakistan. It is clear that while the military is not able to manage results to perfection, it remains the only entity able to exert real power in Pakistan. Defiance of the general staff’s instructions can lead to dethronement and jail, and restoration through the ballot box is still a far-off dream. Mr Sharif and his party may well come to power now; they have always been far more in favour of peace with India than other players. But, even so, it is clear that the civilian leaders in Pakistan will also be hamstrung when it comes to making big decisions like neighbourhood policy. For New Delhi, which has always resisted negotiating with the Pakistan army, this reinforcement of the army’s control will not be considered welcome news.