Caste complications: A caste census will not address basic issues

The Union Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs on Wednesday decided to include caste enumeration in the next census. This will be for the first time since Independence that caste data will be collected in the census, though the data for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes is recorded. The broader caste data was last collected in the 1931 census. Bipartisan political support for the announcement suggests that it was only a matter of time before India began to enumerate on caste. In fact, it was one of the biggest poll promises of the Opposition parties, including the Congress, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

 

Given that the government has decided in favour of caste enumeration in the next census, its implications are worth discussing here. However, it is important to first note that conducting a census as soon as possible is necessary. The decennial census was postponed in 2020 because of the pandemic, but why the government kept postponing after the normalcy returned is hard to explain. According to the International Monetary Fund data, India was about a $1.8 trillion economy when the census was last conducted in 2011. It is likely that by the time the next census is completed or the results begin to come in, India will have crossed the $5 trillion mark. It will be a very different country. Thus, it is important to have a regular census.

 

Nonetheless, given the additional requirement of caste enumeration, it might get delayed further. Therefore, it is possible that the next census will now happen only after 2026 and would form the basis for the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies as required by the Constitution. The results could, therefore, significantly deepen social fault lines in the country, and will have to be managed with great care. Southern states have regularly expressed their concern about the possibility of significantly lower representation in the Lok Sabha. It is possible that some political parties would raise the demand for caste-based reservations in legislatures as well. At one level, there is merit in collecting caste data and having information on other socioeconomic aspects because it could inform policymaking. However, the risk is that such data could be used for political purposes. Although it happens even now, fresh data could further increase the divide. Numerically smaller caste groups may get politically marginalised.

 

The other potential consequence of the caste census could be the demand for higher reservations. In fact, it has already started. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, has suggested that the cap on reservations be lifted and quotas be implemented in private educational institutions as well. At a broader level, the fact that the caste census is such a potent political issue in 2025 reflects the failure of the Indian state to fix the basics. For many groups, the caste census and the potential for a share in reservations offer the hope of upward mobility. While some groups may benefit, the key question for the political class is whether dividing the same pie differently will make the country better off, and whether it is the most desirable solution. The real issue is the subpar state of the education system and a serious lack of economic opportunities for the masses. Unless these issues are addressed, caste enumeration and the potential realignment of reservations will not take India very far.