Donald Trump 2.0?

A second term might increase global risks

With Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, 81, polling historic-low approval ratings in the US despite a robust economy and falling unemployment, expectations of a second Donald Trump presidency in 2025 is gaining traction. Mr Trump’s decisive win in the Iowa caucus — taking 51 per cent of the votes, with challengers Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley coming a distant second and third, respectively — has added momentum to that outcome. To be sure, Iowa, which kicks off the primary and caucus seasons for both parties, need not be considered a bellwether for the November 2024 polls. For one, the turnout dropped by 41 per cent owing to near-arctic temperatures — the reason why the Democrats are holding mail-in ballots in the state instead. For another, the Republican caucus represents a fraction of the state’s population. All the same, Mr Trump heads into the New Hampshire primary, scheduled for January 23, with a commanding lead. His absence from the five debates so far with his challengers appears to have worked to his advantage. Ms Haley, who presents herself as a liberal Republican, declined to appear at the ABC News debate if the former president did not participate, causing the event to be cancelled. Unless his legal cases under Supreme Court review keep him off the ballot in 2024, Mr Trump, 77, looks a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, and possibly a return to the White House.

What might this mean for the world? If his first term is an indication, global security, the climate change agenda and geopolitics could deteriorate, given the escalation of his Make America Great Again (Maga) campaign. Europe anticipates he will make good on his threat to pull out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), which would be a critical alteration to the post-war global security architecture. This might impact the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, where Vladimir Putin appears to be gaining, with Congress Republicans declining to vote for more funds to underwrite Kyiv’s campaign. A deeper engagement with good friend, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, could add to West Asia’s turmoil. The Trump administration’s official recognition in 2017 of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel — the US was the only country to do so — may well have played a contributory role in Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack. Tensions with China, with which Mr Biden has begun an outreach, are unlikely to abate if Mr Trump sticks to his mega-Maga agenda.

India will have to face the fallout of a possible increase in global risks and threat to global cooperation in different areas. In terms of bilateral relations, the Indian policy establishment has dealt with the Trump administration in the past and a recalibration should not be difficult. Though Mr Trump revived the Quad, his administration also imposed higher tariffs and scrapped privileges on Indian imports under Generalised System of Preferences. Notably, Mr Biden added impetus to the security ties with some robust collaborations — but he has not reversed tariffs. Although India-US relations have strengthened significantly in recent years, partly because of the security situation in the region, the Indian policy establishment would have to be prepared to protect India’s interests in a world that could get more unpredictable.