Impending changes

The Tories stare at the likely end of 14 years in power

There has been much speculation about the timing of the general elections in the United Kingdom (UK). Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had the option to delay elections to as late as January next year, and there was some expectation that, given the 17-25 point lead in the polls that is currently enjoyed by the Opposition Labour Party, he would choose to wait at least until the end of the year. Instead, Mr Sunak announced the election would be held on July 4, just a few weeks away. In doing so, it appears he took his own Conservative Party by surprise even more than he did the Opposition. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the third-largest party in the UK, have all largely chosen candidates for winnable seats — but the Tories are still struggling through the process.
 

The first response to Mr Sunak’s announcement was that almost 80 members of Parliament from his party revealed that they would not be standing for re-election, meaning that the Conservatives will have to scramble to find replacements with just a few weeks from now. This is usually a sign, as well, that a party is not optimistic about its prospects. Similar numbers of retirement from active politics were witnessed in 1997, when New Labour, under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, brought an end to 18 years of Tory rule, and then again in 2010, when new-look Conservatives under David Cameron ousted Mr Brown. For the Conservative Party, the main aim is to avoid an epochal defeat. A 20-point lead could turn into a 10-point one and a respectable number of seats in Opposition as the campaign progresses. The real danger, however, is that Mr Sunak proves an inept campaigner and that the Conservatives — often called the world’s most successful political party — may not even be the principal Opposition. This has happened before in Westminster-style systems: The traditional Canadian Conservatives never recovered from a huge defeat in 1992.
 

Mr Sunak’s tenure has not been excellent news for the UK’s bilateral relations with India. It has made it harder, for example, for Whitehall to make concessions to New Delhi in free-trade negotiations. The UK-India free-trade agreement (FTA) might already have been signed if Boris Johnson — or for that matter, his short-lived successor Liz Truss — had stayed in office. The question that must be asked now is how a Labour government would view an FTA. It should be noted that, while migration issues might no longer be a giant hurdle, questions of labour and environmental standards would take centre stage. India has to be prepared to move away from its traditional aversion to such issues, and recognise that they have a part to play in all 21st-century agreements. Labour might also take a stronger line on New Delhi’s engagement with the large Indian-origin diaspora in the country. South Asians from minority religions have a powerful presence in the Labour Party, and India’s internal differences might well become fodder for UK politics the way they have in Canada. If so, Indian leaders must nevertheless take an elevated view and continue to work on improving bilateral relations.