Local institutions need empowerment to fully harness Bharat Forecast system

At a time when climate change has upended historical weather patterns and increased the frequency of extreme weather events, India’s proactive stride in modernising its meteorological capabilities remains critical. The Ministry of Earth Sciences’ recent launch of the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) is a welcome step in this direction. Capable of predicting weather at a granular 6-kilometre grid resolution, the BFS harnesses more powerful supercomputing facilities and is a significant improvement over current weather-forecast models, which generate predictions over gridded squares of 12 km sides or an area as big as 144 sq km. Additionally, instead of breaking the globe into equal-sized grids, the BFS uses the triangular-cubic octahedral grid structure, which generates more grids, and thus higher resolution, over the tropics than the poles. 

 

The new forecast model promises to improve the way the country prepares for and responds to climatic challenges, especially at localised level. India’s vast and varied geography makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Thus, the ability to generate localised, high-resolution forecasts will greatly enable accurate weather predictions down to the level of villages, radically improving the country’s disaster preparedness and agricultural planning. Small and marginal farmers, who constitute the majority of India’s agrarian workforce, often lack the resources to withstand weather shocks. With improved accuracy in forecasting, the new system can empower farmers to make better planting and harvesting decisions, thus reducing crop losses and increasing productivity. The system’s capabilities also extend beyond agriculture. With enhanced predictions of floods, heatwaves, and cyclones, state governments and emergency services will be in a position to act swiftly to mitigate damage. Relief materials can be pre-positioned, vulnerable populations evacuated, and infrastructure safeguarded. 

This landmark development is further bolstered by Mission Mausam, which was launched last year with a Budget allocation of ₹2,000 crore. With a focus on upgrading India’s climate-forecasting infrastructure, the mission will complement the new forecasting system through the deployment of Doppler radars, cloud-seeding facilities, and integrating artificial intelligence to refine forecast models. The BFS will be made operational by the India Meteorological Department from the current monsoon season. 

The launch of the BFS aligns with the IMD’s Vision Document 2047, which sets out clearly defined targets, including a 100 per cent detection of all types of severe weather at village and household levels, zero error in forecast up to three days, 90 per cent forecast accuracy up to five days, 80 per cent forecast accuracy up to seven days, and 70 per cent forecast accuracy up to 10 days. But technology alone is not enough. The success of these initiatives will hinge on the timely dissemination of forecasts, community awareness, and robust last-mile connectivity. Public trust in forecasts and the capacity of local institutions to act on them must be strengthened through training, investment, and inclusive communication strategies. The ability to rapidly interpret and disseminate accurate forecast information will also have international implications, allowing India to contribute more effectively to global climate-monitoring networks and regional disaster-management frameworks.