Mixed signals from Pakistan

India can afford to bide its time in normalising relations

The realities of Pakistan’s military-supported coalition government of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML (N), and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were underlined last week with mixed signals from Islamabad vis-à-vis relations with India. Diplomatic relations between the two had hit a low after the two countries withdrew high commissioners from each other’s capital following the Pulwama attack in 2019. Last week, Pakistan appointed a new permanent charge d’affaires to New Delhi. This is, according to reports, a step towards Pakistan holding its National Day in the New Delhi embassy complex for the first time since 2019. The move is seen as an attempt at thawing the diplomatic chill and fits in with earlier statements from Shehbaz Sharif of the PML (N). In 2023, Mr Sharif, as prime minister, had called for “serious and sincere talks with India” in an interview with a Dubai-based channel and sought United Arab Emirates ruler Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s intervention in bringing both countries together.
 

Yet within hours of being elected prime minister of the coalition government on Monday, Mr Sharif lost no time in raising the Kashmir issue in his maiden address in the National Assembly, calling for the “freedom” of the Kashmiri people and likening their plight to that of the Palestinians. Such double-speak from Mr Sharif within a year underlines the degree to which the shaky coalition is beholden to Pakistan’s military-intelligence combine, with its implacable anti-Indian stance, to stay in power. Mr Sharif’s latest statement, which underlines Pakistan’s position on India’s decision to roll back the special status of Jammu & Kashmir in 2019, is unlikely to encourage the Narendra Modi government to respond anytime soon. Although Mr Sharif’s elder brother Nawaz Sharif as prime minister had enjoyed close personal relations with Mr Modi, including attending the latter’s swearing-in in 2014 and a surprise visit by Mr Modi to Pakistan, diplomatic relations deteriorated over escalating terrorist attacks along the Line of Control and Pakistan’s deeper engagement with China. Although a ceasefire between the two countries along the Line of Control, reaffirmed in 2020, has held so far, persistent cross-border terrorist attacks are unlikely to create conditions for rapprochement, given India’s stated position of zero tolerance for terrorism.
 

Sustained support to terrorism from across the border is the biggest impediment in normalising relations. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has ruled out the revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation anytime soon on this account. Now with India in election mode, New Delhi has little motive to counter Mr Sharif’s statements or potential overtures. The disparity in economic performance between India, as one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, and Pakistan’s long-standing crisis is also unlikely to prod the next administration in New Delhi to accord priority to normalising relations with a country in which substantive power lies with unelected generals. In fact, economic and diplomatic priorities in New Delhi and Islamabad have changed significantly over the years and it is now up to the latter to create conditions for normalisation of relations.