Natural political order

Indian conditions favour coalitions

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) falling short of the majority mark in the Lok Sabha elections surprised most political analysts, particularly because practically none of the opinion or exit polls projected this possibility. Although the verdict is being analysed from different angles, given the political conditions in states, it is now reasonable to argue that a coalition government at the Centre is part of the natural political order for India, and the past 10 years were an aberration. Except for the past 10 years, India has been governed by coalition governments (or the minority government of 1991) since 1989, after the Congress lost despite a historic mandate in 1984. The nature of the last two general elections was somewhat different. The BJP gained substantially in 2014 in what was essentially a vote for change. It consolidated and gained more seats on the nationalism plank after Pulwama and Balakot in 2019. In what was more like a normal election, the party fell well short of a majority in 2024, with governance and local issues finding space. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in a comfortable position to form the next government.

A quick look at the political map of India suggests that conditions favour coalition governments at the Centre. There are at least 11 states with a substantial presence of regional parties — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir (Union Territory as of now), and Kerala, considering the Left as a regional force. These states account for 347 Lok Sabha seats. There are another 10 states where state parties have declined or never existed — Karnataka, Telangana, Assam, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. These states account for 169 seats. Together, these categories of states account for well over 500 seats. The latest results show the Congress has found ways to challenge the BJP in some of the states in the second category.

The decline of the Congress was also a major factor propelling the BJP past the majority mark. Further, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has come alive in UP and has been instrumental in denying the BJP a majority in the Lok Sabha. Therefore, given the political conditions in the country, the BJP would now have to moderate its Hindutva rhetoric to keep regional parties with it from the first set of states. In fact, things would have been very difficult for the BJP had the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), or the JD(U), not switched sides in time. Further, the fact that the Congress has become more acceptable to regional parties and is willing to give them space shows that coalitions are the natural order in India.

There are worries in financial markets and elsewhere that the pace of reforms will be affected because of a coalition government at the Centre. There is enough evidence to show coalition governments have a good record of implementing reforms. In fact, the presence of two important regional parties in the NDA government — the JD(U) and Telugu Desam Party — should help ease friction between the Centre and states. Further, the presence of regional parties in the government with working relations across the aisle should help form a consensus on reforms if the need arises. A lot will depend on how the new NDA government, which will soon take charge, moves forward.