Reckoning in Syria: Bashar al-Assad's ouster adds to West Asian tumult

With Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s precipitate flight to Moscow less than 15 days after rebels led by a breakaway al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army overran the country, geo-politics in West Asia has grown more complex and tumultuous than ever. Despite the celebrations in Damascus over the end of al-Assad’s 24-year rule following 13 years of civil war, it is by no means clear whether stability will return to this country of 25 million people, 90 per cent of whom live below the poverty line. Its two mainstays of agriculture and oil, which accounted for about half its gross domestic product before the civil war, have been hit by drought and economic sanctions. al-Assad’s overthrow was the result of the distractions of his chief backers, the Iran-sponsored Hezbollah and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A peaceful transition of power appears possible with the sitting Prime Minister agreeing to cooperate with the rebels. As yet, however, there are more troubling questions than reassuring answers over Syria and West Asia’s future. 

Though the HTS has positioned itself as a moderate force, its chief Abu Mohammed al-Julani has resolved to establish Sunni Islam. This will represent a major power shift and the history of coups in West Asia suggests that this process is unlikely to be peaceful. In Syria 74 per cent of the people are Sunni and 13 per cent Shia. Al Assad came from the Alawite community, a Shia sect that had grabbed power and resources in the 25 years of his family’s rule. HTS also has a grim reputation for human rights abuses in areas it controls. Power plays by other regional actors also hang in the balance. Israel, for instance, has seized control of a demilitarised buffer zone vacated by the Syrian army between Syria and the Golan Heights on grounds that Tel Aviv wanted to ensure that no hostile force establishes itself on its borders. The defence minister has said the occupation was temporary. Since Israel is not known to retreat from territory it occupies, its presence in the buffer zone could be a potential source of conflict with the incoming regime. It is unclear now how Israel’s principal regional enemy, Iran, will respond to the defeat of its Syrian client. Russia, the other principal al-Assad backer, withdrew its naval and military assets from Syria ahead of the rebels’ advance. Meanwhile, Turkiye’s role adds a level of complexity over resettling the 3 million Syrian refugees in the country and seeking to crush Kurdish separatist groups, which may make common cause with Syrian groups fighting for autonomy. 

Added to this mix is the United States (US), in the throes of a presidential transition. On Sunday President Joe Biden authorised US airstrikes against Islamic State camps in central Syria to ensure that this anti-American grouping does not become a factor in Syria. The nature of US relations with the incoming regime has not been articulated, though the abrupt regime change suggests some superpower involvement. President-elect Donald Trump, who had ordered a strike on a Syrian airbase in 2017 (when he was President) in retaliation to a chemical attack on US-backed rebels, has said he is waiting for events to play out before committing himself. India will also need to wait and see how this affects the turbulent region.