Reckoning in West Asia

Iran’s widely anticipated response over the weekend to Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, killing an Iranian general and six officers, appears to have caused a rethink among Tel Aviv’s key allies. Instead of pushing for escalation, the US has ruled out joining any Israeli counterattack, and French and UK leaders have called on Israel not to respond to Iran’s attack. This was also the message emanating from an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council meeting, at which Secretary General Antonio Guterres rightly pointed out that the world could not afford another war in West Asia. Taken together with India’s statement expressing “serious concern” at the escalation of hostilities, the concerted de-escalatory pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may weaken his hopes of widening the war against Hamas, which is supported by Iran, to retain his precarious hold on power. Thus, oil prices and financial markets saw muted responses to Iran’s aggression; some analysts suggest the events were already priced in. The fact that the widely anticipated attacks by 360 missiles and drones by Tehran, said to be on a far vaster scale than similar attacks by Russia on Ukraine, were defeated in a coordinated operation by the US, the UK and Jordan may have also helped contain the response of Israel’s allies.
 

The urgent next step for the international community is to prevent an escalation of the attacks on Gaza in which Palestinian civilian casualties have mounted. Doing so demands a scaling back of arms supplies to Israel by key allies, especially the US, which accounts for almost 66 per cent of major arms supplies to Israel, and they have been deployed for what is being increasingly described as genocide acts. Israel bombed a refugee camp in central Gaza on Monday, killing five and wounding many more even as the UN Security Council met. Mr Netanyahu has stated his government would not be distracted from the war on Gaza after Iran’s unprecedented strikes on Israeli territory. He intends to go ahead with plans to attack Rafah in southern Gaza. An Israeli War Cabinet meeting on Sunday concluded without a decision on how to respond to Iran’s attacks. Iran is already defiantly suggesting that the West should appreciate Iran’s “restraint”. All this suggests that it is too soon to assume that the Israel-Iran crisis is over.
 

A barrage of retaliatory responses between Israel and Iran could spell bad news for India. Though international sanctions have ruled out oil purchases from Iran, the country imports 88 per cent of its oil requirements and 45 per cent of gas. The bulk of this is imported via the Red Sea, the principal route of Russian oil to India, and the Strait of Hormuz, dominated at its northern shore. Any escalatory violence in the region can destabilise global supplies and push up prices. Some analysts suggest oil prices might rise past $100 a barrel in the immediate aftermath of an escalation. The “return to the path of diplomacy” as South Block counselled on Sunday has never been more crucial.