Global markets have calmed perceptibly after several days of turmoil, presumably because a belief has taken hold that a period of negotiations over the United States’ new tariff policy is now beginning. This belief is predicated on the notion that US President Donald Trump’s higher than expected tariffs are designed to be the starting point in lengthy deal-making. Given the possibility of recession and discontent brought on by higher duties, this reasoning goes, Mr Trump almost certainly plans to cut new deals and agreements. This is what some of his allies have said in public — most notably his billionaire

)