Trump becomes 47th US President, returns to White House after 4-yr hiatus

Stunning victory raises the stakes for stability and peace

Donald Trump’s second presidential victory has comprehensively defied the popular polls and underlined the Democrats’ pre-poll misgivings. Far from being a narrow contest, Mr Trump has romped home not just in the red states but also in swing states. Unlike 2016, Mr Trump has also won the popular vote, the first time a Republican has done so since George W Bush’s re-election in 2004. His victory is remarkable when set against the momentum Ms Harris generated from a late, standing start — at 107 days it was the shortest presidential campaign in post-war history. Ms Harris outraised and outspent her Republican opponent and was endorsed by an impressive slate of A-listers, from former Presidents and stalwarts of Mr Trump’s first administration, Nobel prize-winning economists to cultural influencers such as Taylor Swift and Oprah Winfrey. Her weaknesses lay in associating herself with Bidenomics, which polls consistently showed were unpopular, and a tepid, ill-defined agenda that offered little beyond abortion rights and tax breaks for new families.

 

Her confidence in Mr Trump’s unpopularity as a campaign trope resulted in complacency, which dissipated the initial high-voltage energy of her campaign. Her opponent in contrast stuck to his familiar agenda: Tougher immigration controls, tax breaks for big corporations and the rich, crude xenophobia, sexism, and protectionism. Exemplary courage following an attempted assassination bid certainly enhanced his reputation. A likely clean sweep of Congress — the Republicans have already taken the Senate — clears the way for him to implement his policies in the first two years.

 

Though the American electorate will have to reckon with the consequences of their choice, the evidence of Trump 1.0 offers scant cause for celebration for the rest of the world. On the economic front, Mr Biden did not deviate significantly from Mr Trump’s tariffs, but the latter could make good on his campaign promise to up the ante on combative trade policies, including 60 per cent tariffs on China and 10 per cent on other countries. Further tax cuts, also a key campaign promise, are likely to widen the Budget deficit; the resulting inflationary pressures will act as a drag on demand and United States growth with knock-on effects for the world economy. For India, the relationship with the US has strengthened significantly over the years. Nonetheless, the immediate economic consequences of Trump 2.0 will need to be watched carefully — with higher tariffs likely to hit exports, especially for the pharma industry, and the information technology industry likely to be impacted by hardening H1B visa policies. Possible higher tariffs on China could open up opportunities for India. It remains to be seen how India deals with the evolving situation.  

 

In terms of geopolitics, Trump 2.0 does not augur well for the two major conflicts involving nuclear-armed powers — Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. Mr Trump’s unconcealed partiality for Vladimir Putin and open contempt for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) would be bad news for Ukraine, which relies on Nato for defence equipment. His relationship with Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu, underlined by US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017, spells doom for the Palestinians. As for the climate-change agenda, Mr Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement and vow to remove environmental controls offer a template for the future, eroding any fragile gains. In short, in a world roiled by economic slowdown, conflict, and climate-change challenges, Mr Trump’s resounding victory adds another element of maverick uncertainty.