Ukraine-Russia war: Why India's mediatory moves may remain limited

With its incursion into Russian territory, Ukraine crossed a red line with respect to the terms on which the Western allies extended it aid, potentially altering the dynamics of the peace process

As the first Indian head of government to visit Ukraine since diplomatic relations were established in 1992, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to demonstrate India’s strategic independence in the war between Russia and Ukraine by engaging with both warring parties. In the past, Indian PMs avoided former Warsaw-Pact countries out of respect for Indo-Russian ties. Visiting Poland and Ukraine has altered those equations. The optics of the visit, for which Mr Modi travelled to Ukraine from Poland by train, were designed to suggest that India had succeeded in inserting itself into the peace process as a credible interlocutor. Coming six weeks after Mr Modi travelled to Moscow, the Ukrainian visit was also seen as assuaging negative sentiments in the US administration.

Did the planned narrative from New Delhi appear to correspond with perspectives in Kyiv or Ukraine’s Western allies? There are mixed signals here. Speaking in English for parts of the presser to get his message across to the Indian people, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Mr Modi’s visit as a “historical moment” and expressed appreciation for the wide-ranging economic joint ventures the two countries had signed. Accepting in principle Mr Modi’s invitation to visit India, Mr Zelenskyy also suggested that New Delhi could not take a “neutral” position on the conflict but had to be on the side of peace and he did not think Mr Putin was interested in peace. “Prime Minister Modi wants peace more than Putin,” he said. About India not signing the communique at the peace summit held in Switzerland in June 2024, Mr Zelenskyy indicated he wanted to forgo what happened in the past and would work on making relations with India stronger. A brief statement from the US State Department describing Mr Modi’s visit as “potentially helpful” underlined the marginal geopolitical gains from this visit. Mr Zelenskyy also reportedly suggested to Mr Modi on India being a possible venue for the Global Peace Summit, something that New Delhi will need to examine.

Some questions have been raised about the timing of the visit to Kyiv—undertaken as Ukraine had made inroads into Russian territory, a significant embarrassment for Mr Putin and the Russian military. Moreover, with this incursion, Mr Zelenskyy has crossed a red line with respect to the terms on which the Western allies extended materiel aid, principally for the defence of Ukrainian territory, suggesting that the dynamics of the peace process as New Delhi understood them had been altered. All told, the realities of India playing a useful mediatory role between Ukraine and Russia remain an open question at this point.