War on peace

Hamas chief's killing will stiffen the 'axis of resistance'

The missile that killed Hamas’ Qatar- and Turkiye-based political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has likely substantially weakened the chances of peace in the Israel-Hamas war and escalated the conflict in West Asia in unpredictable ways. Haniyeh was Hamas’ chief negotiator. His death, which Iran claims was orchestrated by Israel, which is yet to formally claim responsibility, silences a relatively moderate voice within Hamas. He had been an advocate of a ceasefire with Israel, often clashing with other Hamas officials. Not surprisingly, leaders in Egypt and Qatar, key mediators in ceasefire talks, have raised serious doubts about the future of negotiations. The fifth Hamas leader to be killed since the war began on October 7, 2023, Haniyeh’s death after a missile hit his safe house in Iranian capital Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new President, can also be expected to provoke a stronger response from Israel’s traditional enemy and leader of the “axis of resistance”. These developments fuel a situation in which the impulses for peace have been decidedly weak in the first place.

For one, the killing of Hamas fighters and leaders has not appeared to have defeated this underground guerrilla movement, as Israel vowed to do, nor diminished its popularity. For another, Haniyeh’s assassination is expected to strengthen hardliners within the Hamas shura; prospective successors have not been notable advocates for diplomacy. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sees the continuation of the war as the best guarantee of his hold on power, given that his popularity is at an all-time low. Israel’s wilful provocation of Iran can be seen as part of this strategy. The attack on Haniyeh came just hours after Israel bombed a residential building in a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, and that may have killed a commander of Iran-backed Hezbollah. Israel has already allegedly killed two commanders of Iran’s powerful paramilitary organisation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, since the war began. Till recently, Iran had signalled a disinclination to escalate the war, as demonstrated by its relatively measured response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Syria in April. An attack on two regional capitals and two senior leaders within hours could, however, raise the geopolitical stakes considerably.

With the Arab nations mostly inert, the future of West Asian peace lies squarely with the United States. It has played the key role in keeping Israel supplied with money and materiel to prosecute its asymmetric war in Gaza, which has created a massive humanitarian crisis. In this volatile situation, the impulse for peace may also come from within Israel, where the stalemated war is becoming increasingly unpopular. The initial impulses for massive retaliation are being replaced by growing demands for negotiations for the return of Israelis taken hostage in Hamas’ October 7 attacks. These have so far stalled on Palestinian demands for the release of thousands of prisoners languishing in Israeli jails. At the same time, more and more reservists are refusing to report for duty. Much, of course, will depend on the outcome of the US election in November, with Donald Trump expressing unqualified support for his good friend Mr Netanyahu and Kamala Harris increasingly trying to balance Israeli and Palestinian interests. The intervening months will be testing times in West Asia.